THE IRRIGATION AGE 



61 



mates the ratio of increase at 90 per cent, 

 and that is a well established rule in the 

 southwest. 



In 1899 he makes the increase on the 

 24,000 cows at 90 per cent, 21,600 which 

 when added to the original 25,000 will 

 make the herd number 46,600. He then 

 follows another generally accepted rule 

 that the sex of the increase will be about 

 equal, that is one half will be heifers and 

 the other half will be steers. Accordingly 

 as the product of 1899 is fixed at 21,600, 

 there will be 10,800 heifers and 10,800 

 steers. 



In 1900 the increase will be the same aa 

 in 1899, namely 21, 600, this number added 

 to 46,600 the total of that year will make 

 68,200 and according to the rule, there 

 will be 10,800 heifers and 10.800 steers. 



In 1901 there will be the original stock 

 of 24,000 cows to which must be added the 

 10.800 two year old heifers of 1899 which 

 will aggregate 34,800 cows. At 90 per 

 cent the increase on 34,800 cows will be 

 31,320; add this number to the last year's 

 total that was 68,200 and it counts 99,5uO ; 

 dividing the 31,320 increase according to 

 sex there will be 15,660 heifers and 15,660 

 steers. 



In 1902 we add to the 34,800' cows 

 counted in 1901 the 10,800 heifers of 1900 

 and count 45,600 cows at 90 per cent the 

 increase on 45,600 cows will be 41,040. 

 Add this number to the 99,520 held in 

 1901 and the total will be 140,560 ; dividing 

 the year's increase, viz., 41,040 according 

 to sex there will be 20,520 heifers and 

 20,520 steers. 



In 1903 we add to the 45,600 cows 

 counted in 1902 the 15,660 heifers of 1901 

 and we have an aggregate of 61,260 cows. 

 At 90 per cent the increase on this herd of 

 cows will be 55,134, add this number to 

 the last year's total, that is 140,560 and 

 the herd will count 195,694; dividing the 

 increase of the year according to the sex 

 there will be 27,567 heifers and 27,567 

 steers. 



In 1904 we add to the 61,260 cows of 

 last year the 20,520 two year old heifers 



of 1902 and count 81,780 cows. At 90 per 

 cent the increase on the herd will be 73,- 

 602; add this number to 195,694 that was 

 last year's total and the result will be 

 269,296. Now dividing the 73,602 the 

 year's increase, into equal parts there will 

 be 36,801 heifers and 36,801 steers. 



In 1905 we add to the 81,780 cows of 

 1904 the 27,567 heifers of 1903 and count 

 109,347 cows. At 90 per cent the increase 

 this year will be 98,412 ; add this increase 

 to 269,296 which was last year's total and 

 we count 367 r 708 ; to this must be added 

 73,602 that was the increase of 1904 with 

 a grand total of 441,310 cattle in place of 

 the 25,000, the original stock of 1898. 



These figures, to the inexperienced, may 

 seem large, but it must be borne in mind 

 that they have been doubling up at the 

 rate of 90 per cent, compound interest for 

 seven years, which is sufficient to make the 

 calculation appear just and reasonable. 



Now taking an all round average of $10 

 a head for the original 25,000 cattle that 

 we commenced with it will amount to 

 $250,000 ; averaging our present increased 

 stock that is 441,310 cattle at $10 a head 

 the total will foot up $4,413,100, a net 

 cash value in excess of the original herd 

 of 4,163,Ko. 



Another point to be noted in this calcu- 

 lation is ; year after year we have been sell- 

 ing off from 10,000 to 30,000 steers for cash 

 as they were put into the market. Had 

 we reinvested the money received from 

 these sales in productive cows, the grand 

 total would far exceed the present figures. 

 It must also be noted that I have fixed 

 the all around price at the low sum of $10 

 a head because they are common range 

 cattle that run out and make their own 

 living the year .round ; graded cattle pas- 

 tured in the timothy and clover fields of 

 the middle western states and fed during 

 winter would be worth at least three times 

 these figures but to be just we must re- 

 member that the cattle of the middle 

 western states do not increase as fast as 

 they do on the gramma grass of the warm 

 southwest. 



