22 



California Agriculturist and Live Stock Journal, 



Is Production Declining. 



GKICULTURAL speakers and wri- 

 'j^% tera often give the impression, 

 witliout positive assertion, that we 

 produce less in proportion to pop- 

 ''/ff^ ulation than formerly. If this is 

 so we eat less than formerly, for we ex- 

 j)ort more. But no intelligent person, 

 after due deliberation, will assert that we 

 feed less to farm animals or live less gen- 

 erously ourselves than our fathers fed 

 and fared. A statistical answer in the 

 negative has been made by the Statisti- 

 eiau of the Department of Agriculture, 

 in an address delivered before the Agri- 

 cultural Congress at its last session in 

 Philadelphia, as follows: 



There are problems presented daily 

 which only agricultural statistics can 

 solve, and upon which largely depends 

 the future prosperity of the farming in- 

 terest. We cannot here enumerate them 

 but a reference to one or two may suffice. 

 The inquiry has been often made of late. 

 Is production declining? It has been 

 assumed that we produce in proportion 

 to population less of the great staples of 

 production than formerly. It is the 

 province of agricultural statistics to de- 

 cide the question. The census alone 

 cannot determine it. Such is the fluctu- 

 ation in rate of yield, that the supply of 

 a given staple may be actually increas- 

 ing, while the product of the census- 

 year may be less than its predecessor ten 

 years before. For instance, corn for 



1869 was returned 760,944,549 bushels, 

 and in 1859 the figures were 838,792,742. 

 It has often been asserted on the strength 

 of these returns, that corn production 

 was declining, not only per capita, but 

 in absolute comparison of quantity. Is 

 it so? The year 1869 witnessed what in 

 country parlance is called "a failure" of 

 the corn crop. It is plainly folly to take 

 such a crop for comparison. And this 

 fact illustrates the absolute necessity of 

 annual estimates to supplement decen- 

 nial returns. Since 1869 there have been 

 six harvests exclusive of the present one. 

 Of these six, the largest and smallest 

 stand in juxtaposition: the one in 1875, 

 the largest ever made, is 1,331,000,000 

 bushels; and the other, another failure, 

 in 1874, 850,000,000 bushels. The in- 

 crease in a single year is 56 per cent. In 



1870 and 1872 the product was nearly 

 1,100,000,000; the average of annual es- 

 timates, for the six years since the cen- 

 sus, 1,047,000,000 bushels; and this con- 

 firms the opinion, founded on careful 

 study of the history of cropping in 1869, 

 that it was scarcely more than three- 

 fourths of a full crop. Now, let us ex- 

 amine a period of twenty-six years. We 

 find that the yield per capita in 1849 was 

 •25.5 bushels; in 1859, 26. <! bushels; and 

 in 1869, the year of a three-fourths crop, 

 19.7 bushels — the same result as that de- 

 duced from the period since that census. 

 If we take the year 1875, the result is 

 excessive, 30 bushels per capita, but in- 

 clude it in the period of six years past, 



•and we have 25.5 — precisely the supply 

 of 1819. 



As to wheat, a general deduction from 

 comparison of census exhibits is less er- 

 roncuns. The increase in round num- 

 bers was from 100,000,000 to 173,000,- 

 000, and again in 1869 to 287,000,000. 

 Now, the latter was a large crop, yet the 

 average for the six subsequent crops is 

 266,000,000, while the estimate for the 

 last year of the six was 292,000,000. 

 Distributed according to population, 

 there were 4.3 bushels per head in 1H49, 

 5.5 in 1859, 7.46 in 1869, aud for the pe- 



riod since 6.6 bushels. This shows an 

 increase of more than 50 per cent, in the 

 proportion of supply in twenty-six years, 

 and is exactly in accordance with the 

 history of the several crop years, and is 

 a proof of the substantial correctness of 

 these estimates. 



The export figures illustrate further the 

 fact of the large increase of wheat-pro- 

 duction. The total export of wheat and 

 flour in fifty years is equivalent to 1,062, - 

 000,000 bushels of wheat, while 91,000,- 

 000 were shipped dviring a single year, 

 1874. The exports of one-half of this 

 period up to 1850 were onlf 178,000,000 

 — less than twice those of 1874. The 

 heav}' increase during recent years is es- 

 pecially noteworthy, nearly half of this 

 semi-centennial aggregate having been 

 shipped in ten years. While our popu- 

 lation has nearly doubled siuce 1849. the 

 quantity of all cereals taken together 

 has more than doubled. The census re- 

 ported 867,000,000 bushels. Allowing 

 something for incompleteness of that 

 enumeration. 2,000,000,000 bushels pro- 

 duced in 1875 allow a distribution of 46 

 bushels to each inhabitant, in place of 

 37.4 census-bushels, or possibly 40, with 

 a complete enumeration. Our average 

 supply since the last census exceeds 40 

 bushels; and thus is demonsti-ated the 

 remarkable fact that, with our rapid in- 

 crease in numbers, perhaps without a 

 parallel, we not only keep up our high 

 standard of cereal production, but actu- 

 ally advance it. This is owing to our 

 vast areas in instant readiness for the 

 plow, to our advance in variety and per- 

 fection of agricultural machinery, and to 

 the stimulus of a foreign demand, which 

 has never been so pressing as during the 

 last ten yeare. It is possible to double 

 our present population without diminish- 

 ing this high rate of supply. There is 

 more danger at present of overproduction 

 and unremunerative prices than of scarc- 

 ity. The proportion engaged in agricul- 

 ture in the West is still too large, and 

 far too large in the South; aud the with- 

 drawal of workers from rural to other 

 industial arts would not only greatly fa- 

 cilitate the creation of wealth, but would 

 stimulate invention, labor-saving skill, 

 and industry in agi-iculture. 



Having reached the conclusion that 

 corn-production is not declining, and that 

 the supply of wheat has increased 50 per 

 cent, what can we say as to the meat- 

 supply and the number of horses? As 

 to the latter, it is not found, according 

 to the fears of too conservative farmers 

 a former generation, that multiplying 

 railroads tends to diminish the use of 

 horses. More horses are now used in 

 taking people to the train than were 

 formerly required to perform the whole 

 journey. The census reports only the 

 horses of the farm, without reference to 

 those of the town or city; but, for com- 

 parison, taking the numbers in propor- 

 tion to pojiulation, there were nearly 20 

 to each one hundred people in 1850, 

 quite twenty in 1860, and, notwithstand- 

 ing the waste of the war, eighteen in 

 1870. The increase since has at least 

 equaled the advance in population. 

 Coming to cattle, %vhile wo know that the 

 numbers in the census are too low, es- 

 pecially for Texas, California, and the 

 Territories, we may use them for com- 

 parative purposes. F\-om 1850 to 1860 

 we find the number of all kinds of cattle 

 slightly increasing, from 77 to 81 to each 

 hundred of the population, and then 

 witness a decline to 62 in 1870. Since 

 that date the numbers have increased, 

 but not materially faster than the i)opu- 

 lation. The consumption in ihe war 

 was a prominent cause of the decline, 

 and a growing proferenco to horses as a 

 substitute for working oxen ti'uded to 



further reduction. The supply of sheep 

 per capita was somewhat greater in 1870 

 than in 1860, the ratio rising from 70 to 

 to 73, but less than in 1850, when there 

 were 93 per hundred of population. But 

 the most marked decline in supply has 

 been in swine; the figures in these de- 

 cennial periods being respectively 129, 

 105, and 65. The tendency is to still 

 further decline in some of the principal 

 swine districts. 



There is another statistical point of 

 especial interest in this connection. 

 While numbers have declined in propor- 

 tion to population, the value of all farm 

 animals divided among the population 

 would give about $24 per head in 1850, 

 $34 in 1860, and $44 in 1870. Not only 

 has scarcity increased the value, but im- 

 provement in breeds has added size aud 

 weight, so that with smaller relative 

 numbers we are able to feed our jieople 

 and ship more beef aud pork and lard 

 than ever. Here is food for reflection. 

 Here is the cause of advancing prices of 

 beef aud pork. And it is fortunate that 

 increase in meat production is consonant 

 with a higher and more intensive agri- 

 culture; that it is, in fact, one of the es- 

 sential conditions of such improvement. 

 If we act upon the suggestion of Mr. Har- 

 ris, ana perfect breeds of meat produc- 

 ers that shall be able to assimilate a 

 larger proportion of the fat and meat 

 producing elements contained in the food 

 supplied, we shall hasten the adoption 

 of a system of agriculture that shall be 

 restorative and not exhaustive. 



We thus learn from statistics that 

 grain-growing exclusively, though re- 

 munerative as a temporary expedient, is 

 a speculation and not ti"ue farming. 

 Land in the prairies worth $50 per acre 

 is bought for $5, and its true value is 

 discounted in installments; i. e., the soil 

 is plundered piecemeal, and converted 

 into wheat and cash to furnish means 

 for fencing and house-building, and to 

 supply capital to the pioneer farmer. In 

 this point of view, it has been remune- 

 rative as a pioneer expedient; but with a 

 farm equipped for the work of a long 

 future, the superior profit of a restora- 

 tive system, in which domestic animals 

 fill an important part, cannot be ques- 

 tioned. 



Investigations in Seeds — The 



Seed-Control System in 



Germany. 



Of the many new ways in which sci- 

 ence has, during the past few years, been 

 applied to agriculture, one of the most 

 interesting aud useful is in the examina- 

 tion of seeds. In 1869, Dr. Nobbe, di- 

 rector at the station at Tharand, in Sax- 

 ony, commenced the study of the seeds 

 in common use in German agriculture, 

 .and founded the first "seed-control sta- 

 tion." How much good has come from 

 this may be inferred from the fact that 

 during the seven years that have since 

 intervened, over 4,000 samples of seeds 

 have been examined at Tharand; that an 

 astonishing amount of adulteration has 

 been discovered, so much so as to exert 

 a by no means inconsiderable effect <ipon 

 the agriculture of the country; aud that 

 the importance of the work has come to 

 be recognized so fully as to induce the 

 establishment of a number of seed-con- 

 trol stations in Gernumy aud other Eu- 

 ropean countries. Various kinds of 

 adulterations have been discovered. 

 Sometimes these consist merely in seeds 

 of weeds and other extraneotis plants, 

 either of inferior value or positively 

 harmful, which have been gathered with 

 the genuine seeds; sometimes they con- 

 sist of inferior seeds purposely added to 

 increase the bulk aud weight of the 



wares sold. In some cases the seeds 

 used for adulteration are deprived of vi- 

 tality by previous steaming, roasting or 

 boiling; in others, so base are the prac- 

 tices to which the love of unlawful gain , 

 will stoop, not even this means is used 

 to prevent the injury which must be 

 brought upon the consumer by raising 

 useless or noxious plants, instead of the 

 useful ones he seeks. Genuine seeds 

 which have lost their vitality by age are 

 often mixed with fresh seeds. The most 

 barefaced, though not the most harmful 

 seed-swindling discovered by Professor 

 Nobbe, consists in grinding quartz rock, 

 sifting out jiarticles of the proper size, 

 dyeing them in proper colors, and mix- 

 ing them with clover seeds. Samples of 

 clover seed containing 25 per cent by 

 weight of this admixture of colored grains 

 of quartz can be distinguished only by 

 very close aud careful examination from 

 the unadulterated seed. 



So patient, ingenious, and successful 

 have been Dr. Nobbe's investigations, 

 that he is able to distinguish with accu- 

 racy the seeds of the common cultivated 

 pkants and weeds, and to determine as 

 well the percentages of pure seeds and 

 adulteuatious, as what proportion of the 

 genuine seeds are capable of germinating 

 and thus producing vigorous plants. 



One outgrowth of Dr. Nobbe's work 

 at Tharand, is his lately completed Haml- 

 huch dfr Samenkiincle, volume of 642 

 pages, of which 366 pages are devoted 

 to the physiology of seeds, 138 to the 

 means of determining their agricultural 

 value, and the rest to the means of pre- 

 venting frauds, and other topics. 



Dr. Nobbe points with pride to the 

 fact that at the time of the completion of 

 this work there were already established 

 in Germany some twenty seed-control 

 stations, whose directors had almost 

 without exception spent more or less 

 time at the station at Tharand in prepar- 

 ing for their work, that still more sta- 

 tions were to be established in Germany, 

 and that similar institutions were found- 

 ed or proposed in Denmark, Austria, 

 Hungary, Holland, Belgium, and Italy. 

 A similar arrangement should be estab- 

 lished in the United States. 



Words of Pkaise. — The New York 

 Eceninq Mail has an article on raisin cur- 

 ing in California, endorsing the general 

 belief that it is destined to become agreat 

 industry, which it concludes with the 

 annexed paragraph: 



With her mines of precious metals 

 still adding their stores to the wealth of 

 the world; with her wheat successfully 

 rivalling that of any other clime; with 

 her cigars and tobacco equal to the best 

 that Havana sends us; with her magnifi- 

 cent fruits, extorting the admiration of 

 all who see them or taste them; and now, 

 with her new raisin-producing industry, 

 surely our sister of the Pacific slope has 

 almost an embarrassment of riches, aud, 

 perhaps, more than her fair share. 



GiiAPEs at ten dollars a ton pay big in 

 old, established vineyards, jlr. I. De- 

 Turk, of Sonoma county, has thirty acres 

 of vines, young and old, which averaged 

 six and one-half Urns to the aero, or two 

 hundred tons to the whole vineyard, this 

 year, making about 60,000 gallons of 

 wine, equal, it not superior, to the vint- 

 age of any previous year since he has 

 been in the business. Even at the ex- 

 treme low price of grapes — $10 per ton — 

 it will be readtly seen that a well culti- 

 vated viueyard is profitable — more so 

 than staple crops. Sixty-five dollars an 

 aero leaves a net profit of $55 per acre. 

 At any figui-e above $10 a ton, grape cul- 

 ture is enormously profitable. — I'ooi-UUl 

 Tidings. 



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