QUANTITY PRODUCTION 269 



But if in making your experiment of choosing 

 the lettered blocks you were permitted to retain 

 the blocks bearing the letter "E" when you 

 chanced to draw it first; and if then you were 

 permitted to retain the letter "V" when that was 

 first drawn from the remaining group of eight 

 blocks; and so in sequence with "O" and "L" 

 and the rest it is obvious that each new test 

 would find you with a smaller number of letters 

 from which to select, and hence with an increas- 

 ing probability of successful selection. 



When, finally, there remained only two letters 

 in the bag, your chance of securing the right one 

 in the first draw would obviously be an even one. 

 And when only the final "N" remains, you could 

 make no mistake your selection of the right 

 letter then becomes a certainty. 



This illustration is made because I think it 

 has peculiar application to the case of the plant 

 developer. His method is not unlike the method 

 of selection just suggested. As the result of his 

 first hybridizations, he does not dare to hope that 

 he will secure the exact combination of qualities 

 he would like to see aggregated in his ideal fruit 

 or flower. But by having a large number of 

 seedlings from which to select he may reasonably 

 hope to secure one that will present some one at 

 least of the desired qualities in superlative degree. 



