April 24, 1879] 



NATURE 



589 



When the above numbers are plotted out in the fonn 

 of a curve, the earlier part of the series presents the ap- 

 pearance of a saw, with four or five high, sharp-pointed 

 teeth at almost exactly equal distances of ten years. The 

 first maximum, that of 1763, is perhaps imperfectly re- 

 presented, and were the table extended backwards, the 

 true maximum might fall in 1762. It is remarkable that 

 after about the year 1807 the character of the curve sud- 

 denly and entirely changes, the oscillations becoming 

 comparatively small, irregular, and rounded, although 

 the periodicity, as already remarked, seems to recur in a 

 less intense degree after 1823. This change in the curve 

 may be due to some local causes, such as the opening of 

 new roads and markets, and it is obviously important that 

 we should learn whether this is the case, or whether some 

 important meteorological variation is here manifested. 

 This is not the only instance in which a well-marked 

 decennial oscillation appears to be for a time suddenly 

 arrested or thrown into confusion. 



One difficulty which presents itself in connection with 

 the above table is that the commercial crises in England 

 occur st?nultaneously with the high prices in Delhi, or 

 even in anticipation of the latter ; now the effect cannot 

 precede its cause, and in commercial matters we should 

 expect an interval of a year or two to elapse before bad 

 seasons in India make their eflfects felt here. The fact, 

 however, is that the famines in Bengal appear to follow 

 similar events in Madras. Thus it is well known that 

 the great famine occurred in the year 1770, or even began 

 in 1769, though it seems not to have made its mark at 

 Delhi until 1773. This quite explains the fact that the 

 English crisis was in 1772-3. Mr. F. C. Danvers, of the 

 India Office {Journal of Science, N.S., vol. viii. p. 436), 

 assigns famines in the Madras Presidency to the years 

 1781-3 and 1790-2. In fact Mr. Danvers explicitly points 

 out this tendency of famines to travel northward, saying 

 (p. 441) : " It is a point worthy of remark that severe 

 droughts in Northern India have, on several occasions, 

 followed closely upon distress similarly caused in the 

 Peninsula of India; thus the Madras famine of 1781 to 

 1783 was followed by one which affected Bengal, the 

 north-western provinces, and the Punjab in 1783-4; the 

 failure of rains which resulted in scarcity in many of the 

 provinces of the Madras Presidency in 1824-5, was fol- 

 lowed by a similar calamity in the North-western Pro- 

 vinces in the succeeding years. The " Guntoor" famine 

 of 1833 preceded only by a few years one which affected 

 the north-western and lower provinces of Bengal in 

 1837-8, and the Madras famine of 1866 was very closely 

 followed by one in the North-western Provinces and the 

 Punjab in 1868 to 1870." We see, then, that in looking 

 for periodicity, we must confine each comparison to events 

 of the same locality. It must also be allowed that the 

 commencement of ia.m\ne in India precedes by about two 

 years the occurrence of commercial collapse in England. 



It ought to be added that Everest refers to a journal 

 published at Calcutta, called Gleanings of Science, which 

 contains (vol. i. p. 368) a table of the prices of various 

 kinds of grain at Chinsurah in Bengal, from 1700 to 1813. 

 The volume is to be found in the British Museum ; but 

 on refeiTing to it and plotting out the curve for the price 

 of rice, it was very disappointing to find the series 

 broken by gaps of several years every here and there, 

 which renders it impossible to draw any safe inference, 

 affirmative or negative. The table is said to have been 

 drawn up by G. Herklots, the fiscal of Chinsurah, from 

 authentic documents. Now, if such documents existed 

 half a century ago, it is indispensable that minute in- 

 quiry should be made for any local records of the kind 

 which may still exist. 



Returning to the prices at Delhi, and taking the above 

 table in connection with a mass of considerations of which 

 I have given a mere outline at the last meeting of the 

 British Association (see foicrnal of the Statistical and 



Social Inquiry Society of Ireland, August, 1878, pp 

 334-42; Nature, vol. xix. pp. 33-37). I hold it to 

 be established with a high degree of probability that 

 the recurrence of manias and crises among the prin- 

 cipal trading nations depends upon commerce with the 

 east. This conclusion is confirmed by the fact that 

 these fluctuations are but slightly felt by the non-trading 

 nations, and that what these nations do feel is easily 

 accounted for as an indirect effect. 



It has been objected by the Economist that this ex- 

 planation cannot be applied to the earlier crises in the 

 years 1711,1721, and 1732, because trade with India was 

 then of insignificant dimensions. But the reading of 

 many old books and tracts of the seventeenth and 

 eighteenth centuries has convinced me that trade with 

 India was always looked upon as of the highest import- 

 ance. A large part of the political literature of the time 

 was devoted to the subject, and under the Mercantile 

 Theory the financial system of the country was framed 

 mainly with an eye to Indian trade. The published re- 

 turns of exports and imports probably give us little idea 

 of the real amount of trade, as smuggling was very com- 

 mon in those days, and much of the Indian trade went 

 on secretly in private ships or indirectly through Holland. 



Dr. George Birdwood has lately been studying the re- 

 cords of the India Office, and he gives as the result of 

 his extensive reading "that the histor)' of modem 

 Europe, and emphatically of England, has been the quest 

 of the aromatic gum-resins, and balsams and condi- 

 ments, and spices of India and the Indian Archipelago" 

 ifournaloi the Society of Arts, February 7, 1879, vol. 

 xxvii. p. 192). This closely corresponds with the view 

 which I have been gradually led to adopt of the cause of 

 decennial crises. 



While India is, no doubt, together with China, the 

 principal source of disturbance, there is no reason to sup- 

 pose that it is the only source. A nearly exhaustive 

 analysis which I have made of the trade of England with 

 various parts of the world during the last century, as 

 given in Whitworth' s valuable tables, fails to disclose any 

 clear periodicity as regards European trade. The investi- 

 gation of various long series of prices of agricultural pro- 

 duce in Europe also leads me to believe that the decennial 

 periodicity, if felt in Europe at all, is over-borne by dis- 

 turbing causes, or involved in too great complication to 

 admit of discovery. On the other hand, I have fallen 

 upon the very interesting and significant fact that the e.x- 

 port trade from Maryland and Virginia exhibits what 

 seems to me an unquestionable periodicity, with maxima 

 in the years 1701, 171 1-13, 1720, 1742, 1753, 1764, and 

 1774. The same tendency is not apparent in the trade 

 of New England. Thus it is likely that crises may have 

 an independent meteorological origin in the semi-tropical 

 States of the Union ; and, if so, it is probable that there 

 are other tropical parts of the world where the meteoro- 

 logical conditions allow the cycle to manifest itself. This 

 subject, so far as it has yet been studied, is full of im- 

 portant and mysterious facts, which stimulate the interest 

 of the inquirer in a high degree. At the same time it is 

 plain that sound conclusions can be reached only by most 

 extensive analyses and comparisons of large series of 

 facts. The search for the facts, too, among the records 

 of the last two centuries, the suitable part of which has 

 in too many cases probably perished, is so tedious and 

 disappointing that it taxes the patience of the inquirer 

 very severely. It is no jest at all. 



But whatever be the area of the tropical and semi- 

 tropical regions from which the decennial impulse comes, 

 mainly India and China, no doubt, it does not follow that 

 the extent of the commercial mania or crisis here is 

 bounded by the variation of the foreign trade. The im- 

 pulse from abroad is like the match which fires the in- 

 flammable spirits of the speculative classes. The history 

 of many bubbles shows that there is no proportion be- 



