May 2, 1878] 



NATURE 



the meteorological phenomena of the American and 

 European continents was unsettled. In stating this I do 

 not ignore the efforts previously made with that object by 

 many scientific men in Europe, like the late M. Lererrier, 

 Director of the Paris Observatory. In many scientific 

 circles the possibility had long ago grown to be regarded 

 as a probability, and public as well as private efforts were 

 being constantly made toward a thorough investigation 

 of the laws of atmospheric movement and of storms. 

 Indeed the failures, so called, that attended these 

 researches were, in reality, successes of the highest 

 importance to meteorological science, because they 

 taught the investigators to eliminate all that was 

 worthless in theory, and pay closer attention to the 

 simpler and grander facts of nature which direct and 

 patient observation made apparent. The chief difficulty 

 in the way of success lay in the limited area of the 

 physical field of investigation. Local phenomena have 

 been treated as general, and the observations made in a 

 comparatively small district have been used to found the 

 theories applied to a hemisphere. 



Except in few cases, recent works on meteorology 

 are barren of original information. They are chiefly 

 mad up of quotations from earlier works, and the 

 experiences of isolated observers who, straining after 

 the establishment of narrowly based theories, permit 

 their enthusiasm to lead them to false conclusions. 

 This accusation may, and probably will, be levelled 

 against myself, but I assure the critics that I will 

 submit to any adverse judgment on my work that is 

 based on scientific truth and feel grateful for the 

 enlightenment. Whatever may be the value, or other- 

 wise, of the statements I make, they are based upon 

 personal observations, and depend in no way on the 

 generally accepted meteorological theories with regard 

 to the origin and movement of storms. I aim at winning 

 for my work all that may be due to its merit, while I 

 am willing to bear all the censure for its defects. 



The importance to the interests already referred to 

 of a system of weather predictions, which can be 

 published for the general information of the people, 

 several days in advance of the events they announce, is 

 one that cannot be disregarded. We find in America 

 that many branches of trade are seriously affected 

 by weather changes, and that timely warnings are calcu- 

 lated to insure against losses that would, in their absence, 

 be sustained. The great grain-growing districts of the 

 Western States have their respective centres to which 

 the produce is brought for sale, storage, and shipment to 

 the eastern sea-board. Sudden and severe storms not 

 only injuriously affect the condition of the roads and 

 other lines of transportation, and thus delay shipments, 

 but also the produce itself; and the anxiety of the 

 farmer for the safety of his crops is equalled by that of 

 the merchant whose capital is invested in that special 

 branch of trade. Hence, both producer and dealer, as 

 well as the transportation agent, anxiously watch the 

 western horizon, and eagerly receive every item of infor- 

 mation bearing on the all-important condition of the 

 weather. The same state of feeling must exist wherever 

 trade flourishes and agriculture represents wealth. 

 Whether the corn be stored in a Chicago elevator ready 

 for shipment to Europe, is borne by the steamship 



across the Atlantic, or is stored at the centres of con- 

 sumption in England and France, the conditions vary only 

 in degree. The cotton-fields of the Southern States, the 

 cotton ships on the ocean, and the staple stored in the 

 warehouses of Liverpool or Manchester are under the 

 same all-pervading influence of the weather. 



To the seaman the timely storm warning is of para- 

 mount importance. Whether he threads his dangerous 

 course among narrow channels along the coasts, or 

 sails boldly into the broad ocean, the foreknowledge of 

 an approaching storm causes him to adopt those precau- 

 tions which insure his safety. The dreadful story of 

 shipwreck which has been continued through the annual 

 chapters of the past twenty-five years, will reach its 

 hoped-for ''Finis,'' when meteorological science effectu- 

 ally aids the nautical skill of the mariner in warding off 

 the great dangers of the sea. Then the headlands of 

 every coast will have their signal stations, and the sailor 

 when taking his parting look at the land he is leaving, 

 or getting his first of that he approaches, will see the 

 warning signal that shall tell him of coming storms, and 

 bid him prepare to meet them. 



In many other respects the value of timely storm 

 signals will be immense. Take, for instance, the case of 

 an army on campaign. The general commanding mus 

 regulate his movements as much by his facilities for trans- 

 portation and supply as by strategic necessities. He 

 must cross rivers and wade through marshes ; climb and 

 hold rugged mountain passes; and secure his communica- 

 tions by substantial bridges and practicable roads. His 

 supplies must be largely drawn over difficult routes, and, 

 perhaps, from districts liable to inundations and heavy 

 snow or rain storms. If he relies on a co-operating fleet, 

 the ships must be guarded against storms in exposed 

 anchorages. In a word, the variations in the conditions 

 of the weather must be recognised in all the operations 

 of an army, otherwise great disasters may overtake it, 

 notwithstanding the valour and endurance of the troops 

 and the skill of the commander. I have watched with 

 the greatest interest the progress of the recent campaign 

 in Bulgaria, and have frequently announced in New York 

 many days in advance the changes of weather that im- 

 peded the Russian progress, endangered the Danube 

 bridges, and filled the Balkan passes with snow. Such 

 calamities as befell Napoleon in 1812, and a portion of 

 the allied forces in the Crimea in 1854-55, would have 

 been avoided if a meteorological service existed at those 

 times to give warning of the weathfcr changes that pro- 

 duced them. 



If a special military service of meteorologists, such' as 

 the United States enjoys in its Signal Service Corps, was 

 organised in European armies, many of the difficulties 

 incidental to warfare on that continent could be provided 

 against. But as the foundation of such a system must 

 rest on the accuracy of weather predictions by cable from 

 America, the duties of an Army Signal Corps in Europe 

 with relation to the weather would be simplified to a close 

 observation of the western and southern coasts or 

 frontiers, and the forwarding of information to the proper 

 points. At the present time the European western coasts 

 cannot receive by local observations what can be called 

 timely storm-warnings in the strict sense of the term. 

 The British Channel, the Gennan Ocean, the Baltic, and 



