32 



National Resources Committee 



many substitutes for lumber began to be marketed 

 aggressively; concrete sidewalks replacing boardwalks, 

 wire fences, stucco houses, composition roofing, fibe 

 boxes, are but a few examples. Research intended to 

 promote the use of wood unearthed some new uses, 

 but in such fields as wood preservation contributed to 

 reduce the annual consumption by prolonging the 

 Ufe of the material used. Meanwhile, lumber was 

 becoming more expensive to the consumer on account 

 of the exhaustion of the nearby forests and the increased 

 freight which he had to pay. 



Wiile these reasons explain the sudden decline in per 

 capita consumption, they hardly clarify the future. 

 European experience is a sufficient proof that per capita 

 consumption is not approaclung a vanishing point. 

 Sooner or later it \vill become stabilized, although prob- 

 ably at a low level as compared with our past. At 

 just what level, it is, of course, impossible to say. 



Some of the substitution for lumber has been of other 

 forest products. The increasing pulp demand has 

 already been mentioned and in the case of composition 

 boards, such as firtex, fiber boxes, etc., wood fiber in 

 one form is merely being replaced by the same material 

 in another form. The tendency in this direction has 

 led to speculations as to whether lumber may not ulti- 

 mately be replaced rather completely by synthetic 

 materials which have wood fiber as a base. This 

 Region has a substantial proportion of woods suitable 

 for sulphite pulp of the highest grade, and should not 

 suffer from any transition wliich may be anticipated for 

 many years to come. Veneer is another instance of 

 the substitution of wood in a somewhat different form 

 for lumber, and the Douglas fir region is rapidly develop- 

 ing a veneer industry. 



The extent to which this Region can secure an increas- 

 ing share in the country's wood-product business de- 

 pends primarily on the future of eastern forest regions, 

 particularly the Southeastern States. A comprehen- 

 sive Federal survey of the forest resources of this 

 southern-pine territory is now under way. Until it 

 has been completed, only guesses are possible as to the 

 future lumber production of these species, past esti- 

 mates having been notably discordant. 



As a hypothesis, it does not seem unrealistic to assume 

 that for some time to come the total softwood lumber 

 consumption of the United States -will approximate the 

 average of the past 15 years, a period wliich includes 

 all of the post-war boom as well as the depression; 

 tliis quantity is, in round numbers, 23 billion feet. The 

 share of this business wliich may be anticipated by this 

 Region may perhaps be assumed as an average of the 

 proportions secured during the past 5 years, the shorter 

 period being obviously necessitated by the trends 

 exliibited in figure 11. If these two hypotheses are 

 followed out to their conclusions, with an adjustment 



in the case of Douglas fii- between Oregon and Wash- 

 ington which is obviously necessitated by the latest 

 statistics, the following figures are reached as the antici- 

 pated softwood lumber demands on this Region. They 

 are presented here because some basis is necessary for 

 the calculations which are to follow rather than in any 

 spirit of prophecy. 



riypoihelical future softwood lumber production of Region, in 

 millions of feci 



To these figures must be added the uses of timber 

 other than lumber. On account of the rising use of 

 pulpwood, it seems conservative to assume an annual 

 cut of this material of a billion feet, board measure. 

 The minor uses, already discussed, can be assumed as 

 remaining approximately at then- recent level. With 

 these additions, the hypothetical future production of 

 the Region becomes as follows : 



Hypothetical future production of lumber and other forest products 

 in millions of feet 



The Life of the Forest Industries If the Supply 

 Is Treated as an Exhaustible Resource 



The calculation of the expected life of the forest 

 industries of the Region, by dividing the volume of 

 timber shown in figure 4 by the rate of (lei)letion indi- 

 cated in the preceding schedule, is grossly misleading. 

 The 71 years which is ob tamed in this manner seems 

 more a matter for ultimate concern than immediate 

 alarm, but such calculation ignores many essential 

 factors. Among these are the unmerchantable charac- 

 ter of much of the timber through low quality or in- 

 accessible location, and the fact that a substantial pro- 

 portion of it is in government ownership and not avail- 

 able for unlimited exploitation. 



Even similar crude calcidations, made by States and 

 by species within each State, show clearly why any such 

 average figure as 7 1 years is meaningless. The apparent 

 life for the four States is: Idaho, 117 years; Montana, 

 135 years; Oregon, 93 years; and Washington, 47 years. 

 By species, similar calculations indicate an apparent 



