Forest Resources of (he Pacific Northwest 



35 



anticipated cut of 8 billion feet. This is partly because 

 over half of the coniniercial timber area is still covered 

 b}' mature stands with no net growth, and partly be- 

 cause many of the growing stands are still too young to 

 bear trees of merchantable size, so that tlicir growth 

 cannot yet be expresseil in board feet. 



The potential growth in the fir region is estimated at 

 14.5 billion feet if the future stands can eventually he 

 logged as closely as are similar stands in the older 

 eastern forest regions today. These figures are net, 

 since a substantial reduction factor (25 percent) has 

 been applied to the theoretical figures. 



This figure is well above the anticipated demand, but 

 the potential growth is an abstraction which can be at- 

 tained, if at all, only after centuries of forestry. How 

 rapidly current growth will increase and how closely it 

 wUl ultimately approach potential growth depends on 

 the forestry measures practiced h\ the land owners. If 

 it can be raised to the level of the cut by the time the 

 l)resent stands are exhausted, this cut can be continued 

 indefinitely. 



On the basis of past performance, 82 percent of the 

 land, from which mature timber is harvested, eventually 

 is restocked with second growth, and these second 

 growth stands are more lightly stocked by an average 

 of 16 percent than was assumed in the potential growth 

 calculation. If the figure for potential growth is ap- 

 propriately reduced for these two reasons, the intlicated 

 figure attainable without recourse to measures other than 

 those in eflect in the past, is 10 billion feet, 54 percent 

 in Oregon and 46 percent in Washington. These 

 figures are net, since young stands are relatively im- 

 mune to insects and disease, and since it has been 

 assumed that 18 percent of the forest area will remain 

 continuously unstocked, an ample allowance for fire. 



If it is assumed that tliis figure can be attained in 75 

 years (somewhat later than the 51 years which is the 

 life of th(^ present supply at the hypothetical rate of cut 

 because immediately after that time there will be a 

 somewhat too great proportion of the younger age 

 classes which are not j'ct showing any growth in board 

 feet) the situation can be shown diagrammatically as 

 in figure 14. It will be seen that the current growth at 

 50 years will be somewhat sliort of the anticipated 

 demand, which, apparently, will have to be curtaileil 

 i)y a moderate percentage and for a short time. There 

 are no insuperable difficulties in avoiding even this 

 curtailment. 



Within the Region, however, growth is entirely inad- 

 etjuate to jn-event the migration which has been referred 

 to umler the preceding section. The mature Douglas 

 fir in Washington would be completely cut, at the hypo- 

 thetical rate of production, in 25 years, und within that 

 time the Washington growth rate cannot reach its ulti- 

 mate rate; too many of the second growth stands will 



OWNERSHIP OF UNSTOCKED CUTOVER 

 OR BURN TIMBER LAND 

 IN COLUMBIA BASIN STATES 



EASTERN 

 WASHINGTON 

 EASTERN 

 OREGON 



WESTERN 

 WASHINGTON 



10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 



PERCENT4GE OF SUBDIVISION AREA 



y/y/\ NATIONAL FORESTS 

 I I NATIONAL PARKS 



^^^ REVESTED LAND 

 ^^^ INDIAN LAND 



90 100 

 STATE LAND f':i:>^:;j 

 COUNTY LAND H|H 



OTHER PUBLIC 

 LAND 



PRIVATE LAND 



AREA OF SQUARE REPRESENTS UNSTOCKED CUTOVER 

 OR BURN TIMBER LAND OF REGION OR 7 MILLION 

 ACRES 



AREAS OF RECTANGLES REPRESENT AREAS IN 

 OWNERSHIPS ACCORDING TO ABOVE LEGEND 



NUMERALS ARE AREAS IN HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF ACRES 

 Figure is. 



still be far too young to be harvested. Within each 

 State, many of the producing areas are exaggerateil 

 examples of the same situation. 



Within the fir region as a whole, moreover, the cutting 

 of the virgin timber at the postulated rate caimot con- 

 tinue for 51 years unless the consuming public can be 

 induced to pay considerablj' increased prices to com- 

 pensate for the greater costs which may be necessary 

 to produce lumber from the more inaccessible stands. 

 If it is true that only about half of the timber can be 

 profitably marketed at present price levels, it is con- 

 ceivable that the commercially available timber will be 

 exhausted in as little as 20 years. P'igure 14 shows that 

 by the end of this period the anticipated current growth 

 will have attained a level of only about half of the antic- 

 ipated cut, so that a drastic curtailment would be 

 necessary. The anticipated cut can be maintained, 

 then, only if all the mature timber can be harvested 

 and then only by nuijor migrations of the industry from 

 one part of the Region to another. Actually, some 

 future curtailment seems inevitable and its severity 

 will depend on whether or not future losses are reduced 

 and future growth rates are improved. 



