92 



NATURE 



[September i6, 1920 



Geographers and the Reconstruction of Europe.* 



By John McFarlane, M.A. 



IN the rearrangement of European States which has 

 taken place geographical conditions have, perhaps, 

 not always had the consideration which they deserve, 

 but in an inquiry such as that upon which we are 

 engaged they naturally occupy the first place. It is 

 to the land within the frontier, and not to the frontier 

 itself, that our main consideration should be given. 

 The factors which we have to take into account are 

 those which enable a people to lead a common 

 national life, to develop the economic resources of 

 the region within wliich they dwell, to communicate 

 freely with other peoples, and to provide not only for 

 the jieeds of the moment, but so far as possible for 

 those arising out of the natural increase of the 

 population. The principle of self-determination has 

 likewise played an important, if not always a well- 

 defined, part in the rearrangement of Europe. The 

 basis upon which the new nationalities have been 

 constituted is, on the whole, ethnical, though it is 

 true that within the main ethnical divisions advantage 

 has been taken of the further differentiation in racial 

 characteristics arising out of differences in geo- 

 graphical environment, history, language, and re- 

 ligion. But no more striking illustration could be 

 adduced of the strength of ethnic relationships at the 

 present time than the union of the Czechs with the 

 Slovaks, or of the Serbs with the Croats and the 

 Slovenes. Economic considerations, of course, played 

 a great part in the settlement arrived at with Ger- 

 many, but, on the whole, less weight has been 

 attached to them than to ethnic conditions. 



When we come to examine the application of the 

 principles which I have indicated to the settlement of 

 Europe we shall, I think, find that the promise of 

 stability is greatest in those cases where geographical 

 and ethnical conditions are most in harmony, and 

 least where undue weight has been given to conditions 

 which are neither geographical nor ethnical. 



The restoration of .\lsace-Lorraine to France had 

 always been treated as a foregone conclusion in the 

 event of a successful termination of the war against 

 Germany. From the geographical point of view, 

 however, there are certainly objections to the inclusion 

 of Alsace within French territory. From the economic 

 point of view, however, the great deposits of iron ore 

 in Lorraine constitute its chief attraction for France 

 to-day, just as they appear to have constituted its 

 chief attraction for Germany half a century ago. But 

 the transfer of the province from Germany, which 

 has built up a great industry on the exploitation of 

 its mines, to France, which does not possess in 

 sufificient abundance coal for smelting purposes, 

 together with other arrangements of a territorial or 

 quasi-territoriai nature made partly at least in con- 

 sequence of this transfer, at once raises questions as 

 to the extent to which the economic stability of 

 Germany is threatened. Iri regard to coal the posi- 

 tion is serious. We need not, perhaps, be unduly 

 impressed bv the somewhat alarmist attitude of Mr. 

 Kevnes, who estimates that on the basis of the igi-f 

 figures Germany, as she is now constituted, will 

 require for the pre-war efficiency of her railways and 

 industries an annual output of 110,000,000 tons, and 

 that instead she will have in future only 100,000,000 

 tons, of which 40,000,000 tons will be mortgaged to 

 the -Mlies. In arriving at these figures Mr. Keynes 



• From the openine address of the President of Section E (Geography) 

 delivered at the Cardiff meeting of the British Association on August 24. 



NO. 2655, VOL. 106] 



has made an allowance of 18,000,000 tons for de- 

 creased production, one-half of which is caused bv 

 the German miner having shortened his shift from 

 eight and a half to seven hours per day. This is 

 certainly a deduction which we need not take into 

 account. Mr. Keynes also leaves out of his calcula- 

 tion the fact that previous to the war about 10,000,000 

 tons per year were sent from Upper Silesia to other 

 parts of Germany, and there is no reason to suppose 

 that this amount need be greatly reduced, especially 

 in view of article 90 of the Treaty of Versailles, which 

 provides that " for a period of fifteen years Poland 

 will permit the produce of the mines of tipper Silesia 

 to be available for sale to purchasers in Germany on 

 terms as favourable as are applicable to like products 

 sold under similar conditions in Poland or in any 

 other country." We have further to take into 

 account the opportunities for economy in the use of 

 coal, the reduction in the amount which will be 

 required for bunkers, the possibility of renewing 

 imports from abroad — to a very limited extent indeed, 

 but still to some extent — and the fact that the French 

 mines are being restored more rapidly than at one 

 time appeared possible. (On the basis of the pro- 

 duction of the first four months of 1920 Germany 

 could already r«iuce her treaty obligations to France 

 by 1,000,000 tons per year.) Taking all these facts 

 into account, it is probablv correct to say that when 

 Germany can restore the output of the mines left to 

 her to the 19 13 figure, she will, as regards her coal 

 supply for industrial purposes, be in a position not 

 very far removed from that in which she was in 

 igio, when her total consumption, apart from that 

 at the mines, was about 100,000,000 tons. Our 

 general conclusion, then, is that the territorial 

 arrangements which have been made do not neces- 

 sarily imperil the economic stability of Germany. 

 The economic consequences of the war are really 

 much more serious than the economic consequences 

 of the peace. Germany has for ten years to make 

 good the difference between the actual and the pre- 

 war production of the French mines which she 

 destroyed. Her own miners are working shorter 

 hours, and as a result her own production is reduced, 

 and as British miners are doing the same she is 

 unable to import from this country. For some years 

 these deductions will represent a loss to her of about 

 40,000,000 tons per annum, and will undoubtedly make 

 her position a serious one. But to give her either 

 the Saar or the Upper Silesian coalfields would be to 

 enable hpr to pass on to others the debt which she 

 herself has incurred. The reduction of her annual 

 deliveries of coal to France, Belgium, and Italy was, 

 indeed, the best wav in which to show mercy to her. 

 The position of Poland is geographically weak, 

 partly because its surface features are such that the 

 land has no well-marked individuality, and partly 

 because there are on the east and west no natural 

 I boundaries to prevent invasion or to restrain thePoles 

 from wandering far beyond the extreme limits of 

 I their State. Polish geographers themselves appear to 

 ! be conscious of this geographical infirmity. It is, 

 i then, to racial feeling rather than to geographical 

 I environment that we must look for the basis of the 

 new Polish State, but the intensity with which this 

 feeling is likelv to operate varies considerably in 

 different parts of the region which it is proposed to 

 i include. The population is suflficiently large and the 



