296 



NATURE 



[October 28, 1920 



Spain, Canary Islands, and Italy amounted to nearly 

 double the home crop, viz. 80,000 tons, making the 

 total annual consumption not less than i\ tons, or 

 about 2 lb. per week per head of population. Is it 

 too fanciful to discern in this rapidly growing increase 

 in the consumption of such accessory foodstuffs as 

 jam and tomatoes, not merely an indication of a 

 general rise in the standard of living and a desire on 

 the part of the community as a whole to share in 

 the luxuries of the rich, but also a sign that in a 

 practical, instinctive, unconscious way the public has 

 discovered simultaneously with the physiologists that 

 a monotonous diet means malnutrition, and that even 

 in a dietetic sense man cann^ live by bread alone? 

 If, as I think, the increasing consumption of the 

 accessory foods which intensive cultivation provides 

 represents not merely a craving' for luxuries, but an 

 instinctive demand for the so-called accessory food- 

 bodies which are essential to health, then it may be 

 exjjected that, as has been illustrated in the case of 

 jam and potatoes, consumption will continue to 

 increase. If this be so, the demand both for fresh 

 fruit and also for "primeurs" — early vegetables — 

 should grow, and should be supplied, at least in part, 

 by the intensive cultivators of this country. 



If the home producer can place his wares on the 

 market at a price that can compete with imported 

 produce — and it is not improbable that he will be 

 able to do so — he need not, even with increased pro- 

 duction, apprehend m'ore loss from lack of demand 

 than he has had to face in the past. .Seasonal 

 and other occasional gluts he must, of course, 

 expect. 



Even when judged by pre-war values, his market, 

 as indicated by imports, is a capacious one. Thus 

 in 1013 the imports into the United Kingdom of 

 products from small holdings were of the value of 

 about 50,000,000!. sterling. To-day it is safe to com- 

 pute them at more than 100,000,000!. To that sum — 

 of 50,000,00!. — imported vegetables contributed 

 5,500,000!. sterling, apples 2,250,000!., other fruits 

 nearly 3,000,000!., eggs and poultry more than 

 10,000,000!., rabbits and rabbit-Skins 1,500,000!., and 

 bacon and pork more than 22,000,000!. No one whose 

 enthusiasm did not altogether outrun both his discretion 

 and knowledge would suggest that the home producer 

 eould supply the whole, or even the greater part, of 

 these commodities. But, on the other hand, few of 

 those who have knowledge of the skill and resources 

 of our intensive cultivators, and of the suitabilitv of 

 favoured parts of this country for intensive cultivation, 

 will doubt that a modest proportion, sav, for example, 

 one-fifth, might be produced at home. This on a 

 post-war basis would amount in value to more than 

 20,000,000!., would require the use of several hundred 

 thousand acres of land, and would provide employ- 

 ment for about 100,000 men. 



The estimated acreage under fruit in England and 

 Wales is : 



Acres. 



248,000 



•exclusive of mixed orchards and plantations. 

 NO. 2661, VOL. 106] 



These figures are, however, well-nigh useless as 

 indicating the areas devoted to the intensive cultiva- 

 tion of fruit for direct consumption. Of the 170,000 

 acres of apples, cider-fruit probably occupies not less 

 than 100,000, and of this area much ground is cum- 

 bered with old and neglected trees. Of the 10,000 

 acres in pears some 8000 are devoted to perry pro- 

 duction, and hence lie outside our immediate pre- 

 occupation. Having regard, however, to the reduc- 

 tion of acreage under fruit, to the increasing con- 

 sumption of fruit and jam, and to the success which 

 has attended intelligent planting in the past, it may 

 be concluded that a good many thousand acres of 

 fruit might be planted in this country with good 

 prospects of success. 



Lastly, it remains to consider what results are likely 

 to occur if intensive cultivation comes to be more 

 generally practised in this country. 



It may, of course, be true that a chance word, a 

 common soldier, a girl at the door of an inn, have 

 changed, or almost changed, the fate of nations, but 

 it is probable that the s^nius of peoples and the 

 pressure of economic and social forces are more 

 potent. Is there then, it may be asked, any indication 

 that the people of this country will seek in intensive 

 cultivation a means of colonising their own land 

 rather than continue to export their surplus man- 

 power? The problem is too complex and too subtle 

 for me to solve, but I will conclude bv citing a 

 curious fact which may have real significance in 

 indicating that if a nation so wills it may retain its 

 surplus population on the land bv adjusting the inten- 

 sity of its cultivation to the densitv of its population. 

 If a diagram be made combining the intensity of 

 production of a given crop, e.g. the potato, as fjrown 

 in the chief industrial countries of the world, it will 

 be found that the curve of production coincides closely 

 with that of density of population. 



Density of Population and Intensity of Production. 

 Potatoes. 



From these facts we may take comfort, for thev 

 indicate that as a population increases so does the 

 intensity of its cultivation : the tide which flows into 

 the towns may be made to ebb again into the country. 

 The rate of return, however, must depend on many 

 factors : the proclivities of peoples, the relative 

 attractiveness of urban and rural life and of life at 

 home and abroad, but ultimately the settlement or 

 non-settlement of the countryside must be determined 

 by the degree of success of the average intensive cul- 

 tivator. The abler man can command success; 

 whether the man of average ability and industry can 

 achieve it will, I believe, depend ultimately on educa- 

 tion. He can look for no assistance in the form of 

 restricted imports. He must be prepared to face open 

 competition. Wherefore he should receive all the 

 help which the State can render ; and the measure of 

 success which he, and hence the State, achieves will 

 be determined ultimatelv by the qualit\' and kind of 

 education which he is able to obtain. 



