Sept. 2 2, 1887] 



NATURE 



495 



tion may do much, but it cannot alter the effect of any serious 

 increase in the want of employment in a country. 



The corresponding figures as to Scotland are much the same : — 



Number of Proportion to 



Paupers. Population per cent. 



1855-59 123,000 42 



1860-64 125,000 4"2 



1865-69 131,000 



1870-74 123,000 



1875-79 • 103,000 



1880-84 100,000 



4'3 



37 



29 

 27 



I lere there is the same steady diminution in the proportion of 

 pauperism to population all through as we have seen in the case 

 of England, accompanied in this ease by a steady diminution of 

 the absolute number of paupers since 1865-69. The Scotch 

 administration has been totally independent of the English, but 

 the same results are produced. 



In Ireland, as already hinted, the history has been different. 

 There has been an increase in the pauperism accompanied by a 

 decline of population. But Ireland is too small to affect the 

 general result. 



We are thus confronted by the fact that if there had been a 

 real check of a serious kind to the rate of our material growth in 

 the last ten years as compared with the ten years just before, 

 there ought to have been some increase in the want of employ- 

 nient and in pauperism, but instead of there being such an 

 increase there is a decline. The population apparently, while 

 increasing even more rapidly in the last ten years than before, 

 has been more fully employed than before. To make these facts 

 consistent with a check to the rate of our material growth we 

 must contrive some such hypothesis as that employment has 

 been more diffused as regards numbers, but the aggregate amount 

 of it has fallen off— another form of the hypothesis as to the 

 effect of shorter hours of labour already discussed ; but a little 

 reflection will show that any such hypothesis is hardly admissible. 

 It is difficult to imagine any change in the conditions of employ- 

 ment in so short a time which would make it possible for larger 

 numbers to be employed along with a diminution in the aggregate 

 amount of employment itself. 



Another fact corresponding to this decrease of pauperism is 

 the steady increase of savings-bank deposits and depositors. 

 These deposits are not, of course, the deposits of working classes 

 only, technically so called. They include the smaller class of 

 tradesmen and the lower middle classes generally. But, quanlum 

 valeant, the facts as to a growth of deposits and depositors should 

 reflect the condition of the country generally in much the same 

 way as the returns of pauperism. What we find then is, as 

 regards deposits, that the increase between 1855 and 1865 was 

 from ;f;f34,300,ooo to ;,^45, 300,000, or about one-third ; between 

 1865 and 1875 from ^45,300,000 to ^^67,600,000, or about 

 one-half; and between 1875 and 1885 from ^67,600,000 to 

 ;^94, 053,000, or just about 40 per cent. — a less increase than in 

 the previous ten years, but not really less, perhaps, if allowance 

 is made for the fall of prices in the interval, and in any casa 

 a very large increase. Then, as regards depositors, what we 

 find is an increase between 1855 and 1865 from 1,304,000 to 



2,079,000, or 59 per cent. ; between 1865 and 1875 from 

 2,079,000 to 3,256,000, or 56 per cent. ; and between 1875 and 

 1885 from 3,256,000 to over 5,000,000, or over 50 per cent. 

 Whatever special explanations there may.be, facts like Ihe.-e are 

 at least not inconsistent with a fuller employment of the popula- 

 tion in the last ten years than in the previous ten. 



Yet another fact tending to the same conclusion may be re- 

 ferred to. The stationariness or slow growth of the income-tax 

 assessments in general in the last ten years, as compared with 

 the rapid increase in the ten years just before, has already been 

 referred to as one of the signs indicating a check in the rate of 

 advance in our material growth. But when the returns are 

 examined in detail there is one class of assessments, more sig- 

 nificant, perhaps, than any, of the general condition of the 

 nation, viz. houses, which is found to exhibit as great an increase 

 in the last ten years as in the previous decade. Between 1865 

 and 1875 the increase in the item of houses in the income-tax 

 assessments in the United Kingdom was from ;^68,8oo,ooo to 

 ;i{^94,6oo,ooo, or just about 37 per cent. In the following ten 

 years the increase was from ^9.1,600,000 to ;^i 28,500,003, or 

 just about 36 per cent. In "houses," then, as yet there is no 

 sign of any check to the general rate of the material growth of 

 the country. Allowing, in fact, for the great fall in prices in 

 the last ten years, the real increase in houses would seem to have 

 been more in the last ten years than in the ten years just before. 

 Other facts, such as the increase of Post Office business, may 

 be referred to as tending to the same conclusion. But there is 

 no need to multiply facts. If no hypothesis is to be accepted 

 except one that reconciles all the facts, then these facts as to the 

 increase of population, diminution of pauperism, increase of 

 savings-bank deposits and depositors, increase of houses, must 

 all be taken into account, as well as those signs as regards pro- 

 duction and other factors, which have usually been most dwelt 

 upon in discussing the question of the accumulation of wealth 

 and the material growth of the people. If the signs of a check, 

 to production in some directions can be reconciled with the fact 

 of an unchecked continuance of the former rate of growth 

 generally, then the later facts cited as to increase of population, 

 diminution of pauperism, and the like, may be allowed to have 

 their natural interpretation and to be conclusive on the point. 



Such a general explanation, then, of the facts as to production 

 in leading industries and the like, referred to in the earlier part 

 of this address, consistent with the fact that there is no serious 

 falling-off in the rate of our material growth generally, is to be 

 found in the supposition that industry by a natural law is becoming 

 more and more miscellaneous, and that as populations develop 

 the disproportionate growth of the numbers employed in such 

 miscellaneous industries, and in what may be called incorporeal 

 functions, that is, as teachers, artists, and the like, prevents the 

 increase of staple products continuing at the former rate. This 

 supposition, it will be found, has a good deal to support it in 

 the actual facts as to industry and population in recent years. 



The foreign trade shows some sign of the change that is going 

 on. Looking through the list of export articles some remark- 

 able developments are to be noticed. The following short table 

 speaks for itself : — 



Exports of the undermentioned Articles in the Years stated, with the Rates of Increase in 1855-65, 1865-75, and 1875-85 compared. 



Candles, million lbs 



Cordage and twine, thousand cwts 



Plate glass, million sq. ft 



Jute yarn, million lbs 



Jute manufacture, million yds 



Iron hoops, sheets, &c. thousand tons 



Tinned plates, thousand tons 



Other wrought iron, thousand tons 



Oil and floor cloth, million sq. yds 



Paper other than hangings, thousand cwts.... 



Dressed skins and furs, millions 



Soap, thousand cwts 



Spirits, million gals 



Quantities exported. 



1855- 



1865. 



1875. 



Unenumerated, values, millions 



4 

 no 



0-3 



not stated 



0-5 

 io6'ii 



not stated 

 205 

 3-8 



4 



168 

 06 

 4-9 

 15-4 



116 



214 

 2-4 



145 



not stated 

 140 

 2"o 



5-3 

 III 

 1-6 



159 

 1021 

 204 

 138 

 2Z9 



6-3 

 319 



0-37 

 251 



I'O 



7-8 

 177 



3'9 

 307 

 215 



331 



298 



348 

 11-3 



733 



3 '45 

 402 



27 



£91 I £io-6 



Increase per cent. 



1855-65. 



1865-75- 



Nil 

 53 



lOO 



380 



37 



-32" 

 -478 



33 

 -34- 

 166 

 224 



563 

 76 



119 

 12 



162 



120 



79 

 -50' 



1875-85. 



47 



59 

 143 



93 

 no 



62 

 116 



45 



79 

 130 

 832 



60 

 170 



10 



1858, not separately stated before. 



» Dec-ea.-^e. 



