in the United States in Fifty Years. 101 



CHAPTER XII. 



THE FUTURE INCREASE OF THE POPULATION. 



Having ascertained the actual increase of our population during 

 half a century, and estimated its natural increase, unaffected by- 

 adventitious circumstances, let us now inquire whether the past 

 increase affords us a rule for calculating its future progress ; and 

 since, as we have seen, the ratio of its increase has been diminishing, 

 whether it will continue to diminish at the same rate. 



The ratios of decennial increase, we have estimated as follows : 



1800. 1810. 1820. 1830. 1840. 

 Natural increase of the white 



population, per cent, . . 33.9 33.1 32.1 30.9 29.6 



Of the coloured, " . . 32.2 32.2 32.2 32.2 32.2 



Actual increase of the whole 



population, per cent, . . 35.02 36.45 33.35 33.26 32.67 



In the last series there are two irregularities, which deserve 

 notice. One was occasioned by the acquisition of Louisiana ; the 

 other was, that but nine years and ten months intervened between 

 the census of 1820 and that of 1830, instead of ten years, which 

 was the interval between the other enumerations. The first aug- 

 mented the ratio of increase between 1800 and 1810, about one 

 and a half per cent; the last underrated it between 1820 and 1830, 

 about two-thirds of one per cent. 



When these irregularities are corrected, the series of rates of 

 increase, per cent, will stand thus : 



35.02 34.95 33.45 33.92 32.67 



And this would probably exhibit that diminishing series in the ratios 

 of increase, which would take place if the gain to the whites and 

 loss to the coloured population by migration, were to continue to 

 increase in the same proportion that they have heretofore done. 



