106 Progress of Population and Wealth 



there are not more than two or three cases, out of near a hundred, 

 in which the comparison can be made, that the proportion of chil- 

 dren, and consequently the rate of increase, is not less at each 

 census then at the census preceding. 



When we perceive the causes of the diminution of increase 

 operating so steadily, and so independently of the greater or less 

 facility of procuring subsistence, we are warranted in assuming 

 that the diminution will continue to advance at the same moderate 

 rate it has hitherto done, until all the vacant territory of the United 

 States is settled, after which, another law of diminution and an 

 accelerated rate may be expected to take place. 



In conformity with the preceding views, we may conclude that 

 the future increase of the population of the United States will not 

 greatly differ from the following series during the next half century, 

 if immigration continues to advance as it has done, viz : 



1850. 1860. 1870. 1880. 1890. 1900. 

 32 p. cent. 31.3 p. cent. 30.5 p. cent. 29.6 p. cent. 28.6 p. cent. 27.5 p. cent. 

 22,400,000 29,400,000 38,300,000 49,600,000 63,000,000 80,000,000 



If, however, immigration were to continue as it is, or have but a 

 moderate increase, the ratios of increase might be thus reduced : 



1S90. 1900. 



27.9 p. cent. 26.8 p. cent. 

 59,800,000 74,000,000 



At whi' time, the population will not exceed the average density 

 of from 35'" to 40 persons to the square mile, after making ample 

 allowance for the Rocky mountains and the tract of desert lying 

 at their eastern base. 



The preceding estimates suppose a slower rate of increase than 

 has been commonly assumed in our political arithmetic, and, for a 

 part of the time, even by those who have set the lowest limit to 

 our future numbers ; but this rate cannot be much augmented 

 without overlooking some of the facts or laws deducible from our 

 past progress, or gratuitously assuming some new and more 

 favourable circumstances in our future progress. The lowest 

 estimate, however, ought to satisfy those whose pride of country 

 most looks to its physical power, for, at the reduced rate of increase 

 supposed, our population would, in a century from this time, or a 

 little more, amount to 200,000,000, and then scarcely exceed the 

 present density of Massachusetts, which is still in a course of 

 vigorous increase. In these estimates, the increase of the coloured 



