116 Progress of Popuhition and Wealth 



the free States to the slaveholding States. The swarms from the 

 New England hive prefer, at present, migrating to States where 

 there are no slaves ; but as soon as the northwestern States are 

 settled throughout, and before they are densely peopled, the cheaper 

 lands of the slaveholding States will hold out inducements to the 

 settler too strong to be resisted. These States, instead of sending 

 out emigrants, as at present, will then receive them ; and thus the 

 rate of their increase, instead of continuing in a descending ratio, 

 will be a while stationary, and then moderately increase. The 

 effect of this change, depending upon so many contingencies, it is 

 impossible to calculate ; but it might hasten the period in question 

 some twenty years or more. 



The period, too, when slavery will be likely to expire of itself, 

 will reach the different States at different times. So long as the 

 labour of slaves is very profitable in any of the States, their value, 

 as we have seen, is enhanced in all the others ; but when that 

 labour has greatly declined in value, as it will do when greatly 

 augmented, the influence of one State on another will have pro- 

 portionally diminished, and not be sufficient to overcome other 

 obstacles to the removal of slaves. The diversities of the States, 

 physical and moral, will then have an unchecked operation, and 

 they are considerable. Some States and parts of States raise grain 

 and cattle, which occupations require but little labour, and, of 

 course, can support but few slaves ; whilst others, cultivating cot- 

 ton, sugar, tobacco, and rice, which, requiring much labour and 

 manipulation, cannot be grown without a much larger number. 

 In the former, then, emancipation will be at once easier and sooner ; 

 and thus after Delaware, in which it will first, and in no long time 

 take place, the States of Maryland, Virginia, North Carolina, Ten- 

 nessee, Kentucky, and Missouri, may be expected to abolish slavery 

 some considerable time before slave labour has ceased to be profit- 

 able in the States south of them. The climate, too, may have the 

 effect of prolonging slavery in the last mentioned States, both be- 

 cause it indisposes men to field labour, and because it is less suited 

 to the white than the negro temperament. 



Such appears to be the result of general visible causes, whose 

 operation is beyond human controul. It may, however, be hastened 

 or retarded by contingent events, the influence of which, as well as 

 their occurrence, time alone can determine. The following cir- 

 cumstances would tend to delay the termination of slavery : Further 

 emigrations to Texas ; the formation of new slaveholding States, 



