16 ANARCHY OF AGRICULTURE 



as shown by the markets, is like the supply not constant, 

 but is dependent in part on fluctuating production in competing 

 areas in foreign lands, in part on prices and uses of substitutes 

 and alternates. 



Compare the two great staples, for example, cotton and wheat. 

 In 1886 the wheat crop was four hundred fifty-seven million 

 bushels. Ten years later, with ten million more mouths to feed 

 in the United States, the crop was thirty-seven million bushels 

 less. And ten years later, with another ten million mouths to feed, 

 the crop has increased by over three hundred million bushels. 

 Eight years later, and the crop has increased by one hundred and 

 fifty million bushels. Cotton production shows the same enormous 

 variations. Taking the annual yield for five consecutive years, 

 we have the following impressive figures: 



Cotton yield 



Year (bales) 



1908. . . . 13,400,000 



1909 10,300,000 



1910 11,900,000 



1911 16,100,000 



1912 14,000,000 



An increase of fifty per cent from one year to the next sometimes 

 occurs in the production of cotton. 



We may likewise compare two minor crops which ,are yet 

 staples and for which the demand is never constant, namely, 

 tobacco and potatoes. 



Note the wide fluctuations in potato production from year to 

 year in this brief table: 



Potato crop 

 Year (bushels per capita) 



1908 3.10 



1909 4.14 



1910 3.79 



1911 '. . .- 3.15 



1912 4.50 



Statistics for tobacco production show similar fluctuations: 



Tobacco production 

 Year (pounds) 



1900. . . 814,300,000 



1905 633,000,000 



1910 1,103,400,000 



1911 905,100,000 



1912 962,000,000 



1913 953,000,000 



Animals follow the same erratic course, often decreasing rap- 

 idly as population increases, and again increasing far in advance 

 of the slow and steady increase in population. This phenomenon 

 makes the farm output differ from the factory output. 



