226 



AGRICULTURAL PRICES AND VALORIZATION 



One of those strange popular fallacies which persist through 

 the years is this one that the price of the important agricultural 

 products is lowest in the fall when the farmers sell the bulk of 

 the crop. An interesting study of this subject was made by an 

 economist, J. E. Pope, and published under the title, "Can the 

 farmer realize higher prices for his crops by holding them?" 2 

 After studying the variation in the monthly prices of important 

 agricultural products, the cost of storage, interest, shrinkage, loss 

 and damage, and other expenses of holding the crops, he concludes 

 that in the long run it will not pay the farmer to hold his crops. 



I8o 



170 



/6o 

 1*50 

 \4o 



130 





llo 

 loc\ 

 30 



SI 



70 

 60 



FIG. 46. Trend of farm prices and yield per acre of crops combined. 100 represents the 

 average of 50 years, 1866-1915. 



Further light is thrown on this question by an examination of 

 the price ranges on the Chicago market of wheat, corn and oats 

 for the past fifty years and more, taking into consideration the 

 months when lowest prices were reached and the months when 

 highest prices were reached. See charts in Appendix to this chapter. 



Interpreting these charts, we find that in the case of wheat the 

 high price of the year was reached in the six months following 

 harvest in 24 years out of 51, and that the low price was reached 

 33 times in the six months following harvest. This indicates that a 

 farmer would do about as well by selling his wheat at or near 

 harvest time as by holding it for six months or over. 



2 Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 30, pp. 805-831. 



