THE WORLD'S WHEAT TRADE 81 



ing power, and sell the wheat for export on a gold 

 basis, the spurt in Argentine exports was due to a 

 similar cause, the financial crisis of 1890 causing 

 an enormous depreciation in the paper currency 

 of the Republic. All the expenses entailed in 

 harvesting the crop were paid for in depreciated 

 currency, the wheat being sold for gold. Both 

 these causes for the fall in prices came at a time 

 when, as we have already seen, the development 

 of America's western prairies was in full swing. 

 Though the exceptional nature of these influences 

 on prices cannot be gainsaid, there is no guarantee 

 that similar exceptional events might not again 

 occur and have a similar effect. On the other 

 hand, it does appear to be extremely improbable 

 at this stage of the world's progress that the 

 agricultural development of the United States 

 will be paralleled elsewhere. 



The wheat trade, like every market for primary 

 products, is continually discounting the future. 

 Acreage under crop and the crop prospects of 

 the principal producing countries are followed 

 from day to day. Stocks are known and invis- 

 ible supplies estimated. To gauge the position 

 at any time statistical information must be read 

 in the light of the considerations already set forth 

 and any particular circumstances of the moment. 

 If a general conclusion may be hazarded, it would 

 be that prices are not likely to fall below the 



