RACE SUICIDE OR A NATURAL LAW? 17 



*. child-bearing might most readily be avoided. Into the 

 controversy which has raged as to the desirability of 

 spreading such information it is not necessary to enter 

 here. 



It so happened that just about the time that the Neo- 

 Malthusian League propaganda in England was getting 

 well under way about the year 1876 the birthrate 

 began to decline. Drs. Newsholme and Stevenson find 

 that the decline began generally about 1876, and is much 

 the same for all the countries studied. 1 



Naturally, such a coincidence has led to a belief that 

 the decline is due to deliberate restrictive measures. 

 Yet the decline has been continuous in France for a 

 century or more, and vast fluctuations of the birthrate 

 increases as well as decreases have occurred, and still 

 occur, even in countries where the influence of that league 

 is unknown. Under Francis I French families averaged 

 seven children ; under Louis IV, five ; in 1789, four ; 

 in 1890, three ; and by 1914 the average had declined 

 to about two. 2 Malthus quotes M. Necker and M. Muret, 

 showing that the demographic phenomena in both France 

 and Switzerland were exactly the same at the end of 

 the eighteenth century as now, the poorer districts being 

 much more fertile than the richer. 3 As will presently 

 be shown, it is very probable that the coincidence between 

 the commencement of the decline of the birthrate and 

 the activities of the Neo-Malthusian League in England 

 was merely due to the fact that the same development 

 of education and intellectual activity which led to the 

 decline led naturally to speculation as to the means by 

 which large families could be avoided. 



1 Expansion of Races, Woodruff. 



1 North American Review, December 1919. 



* The Principle of Population, Book II, chap, v, and Book IV, chap. v. 



2 



