RACE SUICIDE OR A NATURAL LAW? 23 



out respectively by the National Birthrate Commission, 

 Lady Willoughby de Broke and the Fabian Society. 1 

 In each case circulars were sent out to middle-class families 

 selected very much at random, putting the direct question 

 whether measures were taken to limit the families and 

 asking for particulars. In the case of the first-mentioned 

 inquiry 477 definite replies were received, and of these 

 287 claimed to be restricting the number of children 

 as against 188 who claimed that their families were un- 

 limited, or a proportion of 60' 6 per cent, against 39*4. 

 Even if these figures were worth their face value, they 

 would not account for the facts, since, had the English 

 race been still as fertile as, for instance, the Philippinos, 

 we should still find enormous families among those who 

 do not use restrictive means ; but this we do not find. 

 Some of the replies, however, contained particulars of 

 the methods employed, and it appears that only 98 used 

 any chemical or mechanical device, and that the remain- 

 ing 105 who gave particulars merely restricted marital 

 intercourse to those periods when conception is least 

 likely. But there is no period when conception is not 

 possible. It is merely a matter of the chances of con- 

 ception being smaller at some periods than at others, 

 and if the race were still as fertile as the Philippinos, 

 conception would be certain in the course of a few weeks. 

 Only one conception every twelve months or so is necessary 

 to produce the largest families. Now, if we assume that 

 the same proportion prevails among those who gave no 

 particulars, we find that of the 477 who gave definite 

 replies only about 140, or less than a third, claim to be 

 taking any really effective measures to limit their families, 

 a proportion utterly inadequate to account for the general 

 decline. 



1 The Declining Birthrate, p. 21 et. seq. 



