2 14 THE COiSfTKOL 01^ LIF"^ 



general phenomenon in so-called civilised countries, 

 though the rate of decline varies considerably. If the 

 decline extends from nation to nation, as it is doing, 

 it may make little difference in the numerical proportions. 

 The German birth-rate is said to have reached its 

 climax forty years ago, just like that of Britain ; from 

 1871 to 1880 it was 40-7 per 1,000 population (paralleled 

 in some Welsh mining villages) ; in 1906 it was down to 

 34, in 1909 to 31, in 1912 to 28, in fact the birth-rate in 

 Germany is now falling faster than in England. The 

 rate of increase of population in Germany for the five 

 years, 1907 to 1911, was 13 per cent. ; for England and 

 Wales, 11 per cent. ; so that there is no great difference. 



(3) It must be remembered that one of the conditions 

 that make a nation a menace to others is a high birth- 

 rate accompanied by a low death-rate. France, which 

 may be called, amid all its prowess, an organically 

 pacific country, had not so very long ago a birth-rate 

 higher than that of Germany to-day, and it was then, as 

 has been said, " the most militarist and aggressive of 

 nations, a perpetual menace to Europe." In regard to 

 the ' yellow peril ' and the like, it may be noted that birth- 

 control methods are already in use in Japan and India ; 

 and that while some Asiatic races show a prodigious 

 birth-rate, of 50 per 1,000 population, 70 per cent, of the 

 children sometimes die. 



Differential Decline. — But a second reason for fore- 

 boding is found in the fact that the decHne is differential ; 

 it affects certain sections of the community more than 

 others. The less desirable — the thriftless, the careless, 



