THE BEST SUBSTITUTE FOR PROTECTION 371 



The railway manias and their collapse in 1845-7 had depressed 

 every industry. The failure of the potato crop hi 1845-6 caused 

 appalling famine, and led to the Repeal of the Corn Laws. When in 

 1846 Protection was abandoned for Free Trade, an agricultural 

 panic was the result. Caird's pamphlet on High Farming . . . the 

 best Substitute for Protection (1848) pointed out the true remedy. 

 But for the moment he preached in the wilderness. The discovery 

 of guano and the abolition of the Brick and Timber Duties seemed no 

 adequate set-off to the anticipated consequences of Free Trade in 

 grain. Agriculturists predicted the ruin of their industry, and their 

 prophecies seemed justified by falling prices in 1848-50. Many 

 landlords and tenants had been encouraged by Protection to gamble 

 in land. Extravagant rents had been fixed, which were not justified 

 by increased produce. Caird calculated in 1850 that rentals had 

 risen 100 per cent, since 1770, while the yield of wheat per acre had 

 only risen 14 per cent. from 23 to 26f bushels. In 1850 wheat 

 stood at the same price which it had realised eighty years before 

 (40s. 3d.). On the other hand, butter, meat, and wool had risen 

 respectively 100 per cent., 70 per cent., and 100 per cent. The 

 great advance which had been made was, in fact, in live-stock. 

 Competition in farms had been reckless, and the consequences were 

 inevitable when prices showed a downward tendency. Here and 

 there rents were remitted, but few were reduced. Clay farmers, as 

 before, were the worst sufferers ; dairy and stock farmers escaped 

 comparatively lightly. But the loss was widespread. Much land 

 was thrown on the hands of landlords, and efforts were made to 

 convert a considerable area of arable into pasture. 



From 1853 onwards, however, matters rapidly righted themselves. 

 Gold discoveries in Australia and California raised prices ; trade 

 and manufacture throve and expanded ; the Free Trade panic 

 subsided ; courage was restored. The Crimean War closed the 

 Baltic to Russian corn. During the " Sixties," while the Continent 

 and America were at war, England enjoyed peace. The seasons 

 were uniformly favourable ; harvests, except that of 1860, were good, 

 fair, or abundant ; the wheat area of 1854, as estimated by Lawes, 

 rose to a little over four million acres ; imports of corn, meat, and 

 dairy produce supplemented, without displacing, home supplies. Even 

 the removal of the shilling duty on corn in 1869 produced little effect. 

 Counteracted as it was by the demand for grain from France in 

 1870-71, it failed to help foreign growers to force down the price of 



