84 THE FUR SEALS OF THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS. 



MR. TINGLE'S ESTIMATE. 



The next estimate of the seals was made in the year 1886 by Mr. George E. 

 Tingle, then Treasury agent on St. Paul Island. Mr. Tingle purported to measure the 

 breeding areas in the early spring when unoccupied, and then to compare them with 

 the ground occupied in the summer to make the necessary corrections. He found a 

 rookery space of 12,715,500 square feet, with a population of 6,357,750 breeding seals 

 and young. Mr. Elliott's rookery space had been 6,386,840 square feet, with a 

 population of 3,193,420 breeding seals and young. Mr. Tingle, however, took 

 exception to the estimate of space assigned to the individual animals, believing it 

 too small. He therefore reduced his estimate by one-fourth, or to 4,768,430, still 

 an increase of 1,574,900 over Mr. Elliott's figures. 



THE ESTIMATE INCORRECT. 



The absurdity of this estimate makes it hardly worth considering. At the time 

 it was made the herd was well on the way of decline. One element in the estimate 

 may perhaps be cited as indicative of its value as a whole. The rocky beach at the 

 foot of the cliffs, between the termination of Gorbatch rookery and the angle of 

 Zoltoi sands, was made a separate rookery, with a population of 11,000 seals. The 

 ground has never been occupied as breeding territory. Whatever may have been 

 the purpose of this enumeration, it certainly did not give the facts in the case. 



ELLIOTT'S 1890 ESTIMATE. 



In the year 1890 Mr. Elliott again visited the fur-seal islands and made another 

 estimate of their population. He employed the same methods used in 1872-1874. 

 He found the seals occupying breeding territory to the extent of 1,918,786 square 

 feet. 1 In his former estimate the ground occupied contained 6,386,840 square feet. 

 Applying his original space unit to the area of 1890, Mr. Elliott found a population 

 of 959,393 "breeding seals and young." 



THE 1890 ESTIMATE UNSATISFACTORY. 



For this second estimate we can only say that it is as bad, if not worse, than the 

 first. All that we have said regarding the census of 1872-1874 applies with equal 

 force to the census of 1890, for, as Mr. Elliott tells us, "it is made in precisely the 

 same time and method." We may call attention specially to the fact that notwith- 

 standing Lagoon rookery is found to be reduced from 37,000 animals to 9,000, the 

 shore front of the rookery had been doubled in length, being 750 feet long in 1872-1874 

 and 1,500 in 1890. No explanation is offered or suggested for this extension. On the 

 island of St. George, which has at the best only a limited extent of breeding territory, 

 and this probably fully occupied in 1872-1874, Mr. Elliott in 1890 more than doubles 

 the length of all its rookeries. On East rookery alone he expands the water front 

 from 900 feet in 1872-1874 to 3,240 in 1890. As a result of this expansion he finds that 

 though the seals have become reduced to one-fourth on St. Paul Island, on St. George 

 the reduction has only been to one-half. 



1 Elliott's estimate for 1890 is 500,000 square feet less in extent than that of Messrs. True and 

 Townsend for 1895. Dealing with the more accurate maps and when the herd was at least a half 

 smaller, they found 2,616,063 square feet of rookery space as against his 1,918,786. 



