AN EPITOME 



OF THE AaRICULTURAL SITUATION, AND AN ESTIMATE OF AMERICAN PRODUCTION AND REQUIREMENTS FOR FOUR QUINQUENNIAL PERIODS. 



EXHIBIT I. Shewing Estimates of population of the United G 



.. Acres In Cultivation and Required, and Indicating Probabto Extent of Imports of Pood after I 890. 



Showlng the Wheat Production and Consi 

 of the World during the Oth Decade. 



n. F«r iiiuiiner of a«<L«rIaliiiDg per capilit -niula soreuge see Ex- 

 hibit 3. 



b. Exhibit 1 shows that before 1900 we must either Import bread- 

 stuff; oeiiBO to export oittnn. or lower the Bliindard of UvjDg. 



c* lu Exhtbils I and 5 nole great dluiiiiiltlon in rate of Inorense 

 ofpultlviitedHi re«. ntpedaUy In periods ending with lf«.5aml 1890 



d. Itt Exhlhll 1 iiiit« the reduction, from 1886 to 1890, io amount 

 of land in culttvutioii per capita. 



e. Exhii.ii Jsbows ihe vi-ry aiirriilicaot fact that in hut ii -iiikrli- 

 ye.irBini'f tie hurvest of IHSl-o luis tlie currenl produetiou of wheu'' 

 i-nunlledthecurreal requiretneiilB, und that were tbeaQDual hiirvi-ale 

 ii^iitjundiinttie llie !;reat one of I8S7-8 they would not dow aufflce. 



f ExhlNle2aiid 4 show the productive power of the wheat-fields Of 

 ili.Mnrldlolie BUfh lis loclenrly indicate a present f 1881) yearly deficit 

 "( iii-T': thou 100,000.1)00 bLiahelB and with no greater rate of incroiise 

 "! mrt-iige tnaii hue obtained ainuf 1880, such deficit will an n mil ly 



lUfe'iiie 



III V more rhan ■:0,0«0,()00 l>uehels. 



Exhibit 2 HhowB thill reserves of more than 2r,i),ono.iiOll lnHhelB, 

 accumulated during the earlier years of the ninih decade ihere Is 

 every reoBon to believe have been exhausted and that in future we 

 rauHt rely upon eurrent production to meet cuirent needa, and that a 

 large defiicit,— wholly todc-peiirlent of the deplorable condiiioo of 

 growing European crops and due ulone to dcBcient iicrenKe, — will be 

 painfully upparentat tb^etidof th<^ 1S9I-2 harvest year, oei-easltullDg 



EXHIBIT 3. ShowlDe 



acri'iu.-'' roiiulrod per cap- 

 ita to fuTDlsh ■toples con- 

 sumed Id tbo u. S. and 

 Cotton ezpoTtad a* com- 

 putedfromjlaat) too vaara 

 ot-'ieaceaiid produottoiiaa 

 set forth la tha reporta of 

 the DepartmaDt Of Aart- 

 "■'* first dodootiiis 



extraordinary drafts, early In 18S2, upon Indiu, i^nnth Aiuerk-n umi AiiBtralubiu, which will full far 

 short of mteting the pressing need* whilu trenching serlouhly U[j.'m euppliea that will be ait badly 

 needed in the following year. 



EXHIBIT 4. Showlngth* Wheat Acreage of the World In 1870, lasoend I 890. Average Yield per Acre, 

 Productive Power and Requirements 



EXHIBIT 0. Showing Increase of Cultivated Area 



In the United States, and the Rates 



Per Cent, of Increase. 



..J price of \ 



Id Esxlasd and at Ottlcago and 

 »nTinni averaii^B values par '~~ 

 shal of Wheat exported 1 

 the XTnlted States. 



EXHIBIT 7. Showing 20 Years' Exports of Wheat from India, Russia and 

 the United States, Including Flour, the Average per Year during each 

 Five-year Period, and the Total for Twenty Yeara, 



h. Exhibit 4 shows that during the eighth dei-ade tbe wheat acre. 

 ageof the world increased 24.0011,000 acres, of which the United Htutcs 

 contributed 10,000,000 acres, or 79 per cent. During the ninth decade 

 the Inorease was but 4,164,000 acres, of wbloh tbe United States contrib- 

 uted 187,000. 



During the eighth decade the bread-eating populations increased 11.4 

 per cent, and (lie wheat area 16.6 per cent., while that of rye reruuined 

 the same. During Iht ninth dtf^dr thr infretue in the wff.at (and 

 rye) area uku but 1.4 per cent,, as againut an incr-rtuit in t/ie contntruini; 

 populfitinn of 14 per cent., (lie ratio bring lu Oft* i» to ten. ThlB showing 



is astounding. Doet it not indicate great scarcity and high pricta at an 

 early d'ly f 



J, Although the last tea years' inoreaee In the aereuge Indicates an 

 Increase in the annual wheat supply of but ."iO, 000.000 bushels yet tbe 

 bre'id eating populations have invrea»'d o6.000.(K>0, requiring an addi- 

 tion to tbe annuiJ supply of more than 260,000,000 bushels of wheat and 

 IbO.OOO.OOO busbelH of rye, and yet the rye gelds are no gremer than in 

 IRSti. But for tbe exceaslTe wheat acaeage exiating during the «arli.-r 

 part or the ninth decade, permitting the accumulution uf large reserves, 

 tbe pinch of si-^arcily would long since have Ijeeu felt. 



k. In the United 8tat«a a phenorocmil Incrense of cultivated area 

 began uliout IKTI, and in the next 14 years populall'in increased 44 per 

 cent, and snob area 11-' per cent, (t'^ee Bxiilbit 5.) 



n. From 1871 to 1889 the i_gold) price of English grown wheat, In 

 the marheis of (.Ireat BriCtain. shrank 47 percent, aa against a &I1 of 

 33 per cent, in tbe currency price at Chiciigo and 38 per cent, io the 

 value of American wheat exported. &o wide a difference in tbe depre- 

 ciation is due tu tb« lessened cost of iraneportiition , which benefits the 

 A mericitn farmer while having the opposite effect upon hie competitor, 



a: li the acreage m»d 



1672 . 

 1873 

 1874 

 1876 



1678 - 

 1877 

 1878 

 1670 . 

 1680 . 



464,000 

 1,189,000 



736,000 

 8,278,000 

 3,00 4,000 

 1.884,000 



4,087^0 



11397^00 

 1.672,000 



4. 109.000 



e.8i6Aoo 



Totala 



13.806,000 

 87,140,00* 

 26,496,000 

 39,203,000 



^■6B8,00O__ 



89,«a6,000 



80.838,000 

 41 668,000 

 26.271.000 

 32.876,000 

 26.764,000 

 ttS,960 000 

 351.892 000 



67,474,000 

 68.631.000 

 68.664,000 

 41.437,000 

 46,870.000 



64,010,000 



68,762,000 

 66,018,000 

 61,688.000 



aaj>ie.o oo 



60318.000 



81,574,000 

 38,096,000 

 88,016,000 

 91.610,000 

 78, 9 13,000 



68,408,000 



147.61 



18Q,a04j000 



io9j)a«4Me 



86,588.000 

 48.978,000 

 76,374,000 

 83,780.000 

 67,726,000 

 62,664.000 



91.757,000 

 61 612.000 

 77.796,000 

 136.116.000 

 _ 107.261.000 



oo.eoe.ooo 



1.301,000,000 



168,888,000 



iai,8S«,ooo 



147,611,000 

 111,884,000 

 132.670.000 



140,088,000 



84.586.000 

 163806,000 

 119.626,000 

 68,601,000 

 _ 106,4 30,000 

 I13.2O8.000 

 2,129.427.000 



EXHIBIT 8. Showing the World's Area In Food Staples of the Temperate Zones' In 1870, i 880 and ISOO: Acreage Quotas per 



Capita : Percentages of Quota Increase and Decrease, and Acreages Above and Below Requirements, as 



Indicated l>y Mean Quota for T;«enty Years and that for I 870. 



yo vrbeD II 00 nHtl lutes 

 inly yoant tliSADpi 



aiTueri 



ft Isvqually 



prodaotive power yet. by 



iirrica xhoald i| 

 ■ir Ryp relailvt 



that moat Wr1t«i« trfatvol 



_ -,- .-luon of the yearly viirlnlli 



a poor Indication or compnrallva productive power 



net for thij last ten years, anri ntldlnj; I'n.non.imi 

 I'.reonllncnts.and cailllnulhe mt-iin ofpopiilatioii 

 .Kv consumed an averaijeof i,;ii;i.iJJO.i't«i bushels or 

 I unit or the population hna been 'iM busliela, 

 (-■iporla from the olllclal catlniali^ or prudur^ 

 r all iiiiriMUiia. Is (ouud to have bima i.vt 



buKhels per mpi 

 bMn 330,01)0. <-u 1 

 biubsu per c:ip 

 eloHlyappiu^iin 



The Hnnuai ooQium 

 I there would appejir 



u annual aoreace t 

 jr capita for these 



Lions vrtll hercDtlerrequlreo.caAul' ui 

 r such population hnvlne or liile y 

 •asooaele to expect that the Inrrtn' 



linearly 8 000,000 acres more tliiin re 

 I- |wr caplLu requlrementjc prove 10 

 ,-lith decade and the rate of incri'if 

 ': I'lil yeani. the addltloDSIo the rye 



iwcniy years— i 



olhe world'" rye and n 



Inv 



long will I 



>f the met II 



for seven years. bu« 

 ulla bfllDc about nix 

 perable dllflculty lu 

 rtad-cjitlng peoplw. 



I la growing the bread- 

 eqnal to the prodQctof 

 lining that tho bread- 

 ' In ryo and wheal, and 



.crea of rye and 



:lon equal that 

 nrea ehonld ex- 



wenty year^. al 

 ■ II 6«ofan ncre. 

 « the addmon. 

 Ids, being more 



tiie United siate* •■'■>, 

 (M.UW.OW acn-it doi* riiii 

 IndiRs from which it 

 irnnti tax. to wrlnKK'i 



I'lvcion'Mtlii"" w. 







hni tmt to CI 



1> pOMlbll 



liitluu, and uuipl(.H nii'uuh ut iruuopuruitlon- In the at>- 

 .-n Will be very alow. But three regions- Auxlrataala, 

 '•■■<. meet tbe flnt tbtec, and In all the available area Is 

 >.: in tbe United Stales twenty-five year* slooe, aad each 

 iiUtion and the means or transportation. 

 iw prima were alT^l«d by tbe opening or. 



lands not rertllinvd 

 tlon ar<> or Io 

 >) ranting 



will, rn-H "in 

 wttnever 



.. from India, during the elKhlh^hd ninth decades, 

 Ezhlblta 6, a and 7. 

 . . _ 3 Increase maoafaciured articles indennliely, there Is 

 the Isnd can be iDcrea-ed. and. under eilfllDg 

 produd of any given ari-a !• nolllfcr' ■ 





I far. the rnost prosperous 

 d- lie owns and cultlva(«r ' 

 1, rorogo aad SiMt crops ol 



telyu . 



Dgbronsht under c 



i» aecooipnnylag data the 



EXHIBIT 9. Showing the WHEAT and RYE Acreage of the World at the Clos* 

 of the Ninth Decade and the Annual Average Product for Ten Yeara. 



ind Turkey Includes Bnlgarla 



wlu addition to tbe w 

 ibout IO,DOO,UOD and tha n 

 inpply of breadnlum. 



EXHIBIT 10. Showing the Geographical and Acreage Distribution, at the End of Three Decennial Periods, of the World's Area in Grain and Potatoes, and Total Acreage in Each Staple, and Total in Each Geographical Division, 



• 



