THE FARMER IIST THE COMING CHANGE. 25 



during that decade there was added to such wheat producing area 4,164,000 acres (being 

 but 2.3 per ceilt.)or an area equal to the requireiiients of lO.dOO.OOO people which, added 

 to the 2t>,000,000 which the surplus acrcagt', at the lie,i;iniiiii<? of the decade, would supply, 

 and we have, at the end of the ninth decade, a supply .sufllcicnt for but 36,000,000 out of 

 the 56.000,000 that have been added to the bread-eating iiopulations of European blood 

 since 18S0 the residue havin;^, up to this time, been supplied by the enormous reserves 

 that accumulated iu.inill, warehouse and farm granary during the existence of a surplus 

 acreage, such reserves being now quite exhausted. 



From the bpst data obtainable it would appear that with an average yield the 

 world's crop of wheat is now 100,000,000 bushels less than the yearly consumption, and 

 that each passing year, by reason of the increase in the bread-eating population, adds 

 from twenty to twenty live millions to this yearly deficit, so that by 18!)") it can hardly be 

 less than 200,000,000 bushels if the per capita requirements remain as large as they have 

 been. 



Up to the present time the reserves accumulated during the existence of a surplus 

 acreage have sufficed to meet this deficit — such deficit in the five years of its continuance 

 and growth having probably aggregated 300,000,000 bushels less the excess of the great 

 crop of 1887-8 — but there is abundantevidence that these reserves are everywhere exhausted- 



The people of Europe yearly consume about three bushels of rye per capita, and as 

 no additions have been made lo the world's rye fields since 1870 there is an additional 

 draft of something like 17,000,000 bushels with each recurring year to meet a demand for 

 wheat created by the failure of the rye fields to expand as the rye-eating population in- 

 creases, and this has consumed much of the world's surplus of wheat — probably 150.000,- 

 000 bushels since 1880 — hence each year's addition to the supply of wheat and rye must 

 hereafter be from 43,000,000 to 44,000,000 bushels. In other words, we must annually add 

 to our wheat and rye fields nearly 4,000 000 acres, while theadditionsof the last ten years 

 have been but 400,000 acres per annum. 



All addilions to the area devoted to the two Rrincipal bread-making grains have 

 ceased in Europe as a whole; have ceased in the Uuiied States, and among the exporting 

 countries such area is increasing only in Canada, Australia and Argentina, and only in 

 Argentina does it keep pace with domestic requirements. The other primary food staples 

 show a somewhat greater relative increase, but, taking all kinds of grain and potatoes, 

 they are increasing less than one-half as fast as the consuming population. 



Of recent years the cultivated acreage of the United States increasing less than one- 

 half as fast as the domestic requirements, we are yearly making great inroads upon the 

 acreage heretofore employed in producing the grain and animal products sent abroad, 

 and while we now export — exclusive of cotton — something less than six per cent, of the 

 products of our farms, this percentage must, from increasing home needs, diminish more 

 than one-fifth per year. 



Owing to our inability to make further considerable drafts upon a public domain 

 that has been practically exhausted of its tillable portion and the rapid augmentation of 

 domestic population and requirements, it appears probable that we shall cease to export 

 food at the end of five years, and as the world will then be annually .?hort some 200,000,- 

 OOO bushels of wheat and a still greater quantity of rye, to say nothing of other food 

 staples, high prices must then obtain, but we need not wait five years for high prices, as 

 the deficient acreage now obtaining ensures such prices from this year forward, and the 

 impossibility of making good this deficit in the world's food areas, while population con- 

 tinues to incrca-e at anything near present rates, assures the prolonged continuance of 

 such prices and liigh prices for the products of the farm means that the farmer will not 

 much longer be under the necessity of working on an average from fourteen to sixteen 

 hours per day and that he will soon take his rightful place in the world and receive his 

 share of the good things of life. He will build better houses, barns and granaries; hia 

 land will rapidly double and treble in value, and being able to secure what money he 

 actually requires from the sale of only a portion of his produce, he will not be forced to 

 sell when all others are doing likewise; hence, while prices will be so much better, they 

 will also be far steadier and fluctuate onlv as affected by suddIv and demand, whereas 



