THE PRICE OF WHEAT 161 



main causes of this rise.* According to Jevons's figures 

 the rise in price was one-third. The rise in the price of 

 wheat, however, was not so great, but the fluctuations 

 were very much greater than fluctuations in general 

 prices. Furthermore, the period of the rise in the case 

 of general prices was earlier by about two years than 

 that in the case of wheat, although the duration of both 

 periods was about the same. 



Two reasons, then, may be assigned to the steady rise 

 over these years the diminution of supplies owing to 

 frequent wars and the increased production of gold. 



During the period 1860-1877, the graph of wheat 

 prices has four "crests" and four corresponding 

 "troughs." It is significant to note that these prices 

 follow the outbreak of war in all cases, while the falls 

 are the natural consequences of a return to normal pro- 

 duction after the cessation of hostilities. Moreover, the 

 maxima prices occur at strikingly regular intervals of 

 five years, commencing in 1862, and recurring in 1867, 

 1872, and 1877. The probability is that this regularity 

 is merely a coincidence, and due in great part to the 

 occurrence of wars, as rises occur regularly after the 

 four wars: 



American Civil, (1861-5) ; 

 Austro-Prussian, (1866) ; 

 Franco-Prussian, (1870-1) ; 

 Russo-Turkish, (1877-8). 



The fall of 1869 was due no doubt in some measure 

 to the opening of the Suez Canal. But the influence 

 would not be great immediately, and this event must be 

 regarded as one factor responsible for the fall in British 

 wheat during the next two decades. As such, it will 

 receive notice in the succeeding section. 



*' ' The Purchasing Power of Money. ' ' Page 242. 



