168 WHEAT PRODUCTION IN NEW ZEALAND 



absence of any violent annual fluctuations. The graph 

 has only two peaks of any importance, but neither is 

 of much consequence compared with the rapid fluctu- 

 ations during the first seventy years of the century. 

 The first of these fluctuations occurred when the index 

 number rose from 92 in 1896 to 119 in 1898, and then 

 fell in the following year to 90. A bad harvest in the 

 United States in 1896 no doubt contributed to the rise 

 in English wheat in 1897, while in that year the world's 

 wheat crop had declined to 286 million quarters from 

 298 in 1896 and 305 in 1895. Furthermore, the peak 

 in the graph corresponds with the Spanish-American 

 War which accentuated the already existing tendency 

 towards rising prices. The year 1898 witnessed a 

 remarkably good harvest throughout the Northern 

 Hemisphere, bringing up the world's production for 

 that year to 366 million quarters. The consequence was 

 that in the following year price fell greatly, the rapidity 

 of its fall strengthening the presumption that the 

 Spanish- American War had exerted a certain influence 

 in raising prices. 



The second fluctuation occurred in 1909, when there 

 was a sharp rise owing to bad harvests in various 

 countries. The world's production of wheat which in 

 1906 had been 424 million quarters fell in 1907 to 389, 

 and was only 398 in 1908. Consequently, the years 1908 

 and 1909 were years of rising prices, the rise being more 

 marked in the latter year. A good harvest in 1908 of 

 454 million quarters brought prices back again, the 

 index number which had risen from 112 in 1908 to 

 129 in 1909, falling again to 110. 



With the exception of these two fluctuations of 1898 

 and 1909, the price of wheat was comparatively stable, 

 though with a steadily rising tendency, until the out- 

 break of War in 1914. The great rise since the middle 

 of 1914 will be considered later. It remains to indicate 



