238 WHEAT PRODUCTION IN NEW ZEALAND 



example, with reference to stock, it is assumed that one- 

 third of its use is devoted to producing this particular 

 crop. Manager's wages are over-estimated, as is also 

 horse-feed in two cases. But to be in error on this side 

 is a matter of small consequence for our purposes. 



An average of the three estimates is probably the best 

 figure from which to draw conclusions. The simple 

 arithmetic average is 3s. 6d. per bushel, but the weighted 

 average is more important. Weighting according to the 

 number of bushels the average is 3s. 5d. It is not that 

 there is any actual case in which the cost of production 

 is this amount, but the statement merely implies that 

 the average cost of production is 3s. 5d. per bushel. 

 Land C would be considered as marginal land, but the 

 estimated cost of production here is too high on account 

 of a relatively low yield in the particular year. On this 

 a conservative estimate of the yield would be 24 bushels 

 per acre, when the cost would be 3s. 6d. per bushel. 

 Our investigations then lead us to the conclusion that 

 the average marginal cost of production is 3s. 6d. per 

 bushel. Now, since the average market price for the 

 ten years 1904-13 was 3s. 7d., it is obvious that unless 

 a higher price can be maintained, the margin of culti- 

 vation will not be extended further. 



On the higher grade lands the cost of production is 

 slightly above 3s., and very often below this amount. 

 Price for the most part is quoted at the nearest railway 

 station, and the purchaser bears the cost of carriage. 

 This leaves a clear profit of some 6d. per bushel for most 

 land above the margin. 



9. Conclusion. 



The consideration of the importance of these estimates 

 in forecasting future tendencies in the wheat industry- 

 is left till the concluding chapter. It was for this 

 purpose, primarily, that the investigation on these par- 



