272 WHEAT PRODUCTION IN NEW ZEALAND 



Dardanelles, for the price fell to 52s. per quarter, but 

 when the attack failed it soon rose again, and in May, 

 British wheat was selling at 68s. 6d. per quarter. 



The most important factor arose from the fact that 

 there was a shortage in the world's wheat supply at the 

 harvest of 1914. In 1914 the wheat supply was only 

 90 per cent, of the previous year's supply. The total 

 supply in 1913 was 4,241,528,000 bushels, while in 1914 

 it was 3,914,000,000 bushels. This was due to the low 

 yields in Europe and Canada, and the failure of the 

 Australian crop. Added to this there was the destruction 

 of supplies in the zone of conflict during the summer of 

 1914. Immense quantities of grain and flour must have 

 been destroyed in Poland, East Prussia, Galicia, Belgium, 

 and France, in the ebb and flow of the fight on so lengthy 

 a battle line. 



Fourthly, there is the psychological factor, always in 

 operation in extraordinary circumstances, but never so 

 great in the commercial world for many years. With 

 so many strong Powers plunged into war at a moment's 

 notice there was no certainty for weeks as to what might 

 happen in the commercial world, and this caused a 

 general rush among belligerents to increase their supplies 

 of wheat by importation. 



Now, all these factors operated to raise the price of 

 New Zealand wheat, but two other forces were also in 

 operation which accentuated the tendency of prices to 

 rise. First there was the knowledge that the Australian 

 crop was almost a total failure, and secondly, there was 

 an unfortunate and apparently unavoidable mistake in 

 the estimates given in the official publications of the 

 area under wheat. This latter factor was the more 

 important owing to the deceptive nature of the season 

 which led to an underestimate of yield. When, there- 

 fore, the official estimate was given at 4,630,000 bushels, 

 and it was known that supplies would not be available 



