296 WHEAT PRODUCTION IN NEW ZEALAND 



quickly reacts on New Zealand prices. Dr. Mcllraith, 

 in his Course of Prices in New Zealand, has shown that 

 there is a close connection between New Zealand prices 

 and English prices, and there seems to be no reason why 

 this connection should weaken. The general scarcity of 

 rural produce caused by the depredations of war has 

 increased the rise in general prices. We may, therefore, 

 conclude that prices in New Zealand will continue to 

 rise. 



Now, in the immediate future wheat prices are likely 

 to remain high, not only because of the conditions stated 

 above, but also because there will, in all probability, be 

 a retardation in the rate of production for the world. 

 Exports from the United States of America are de- 

 creasing yearly, and this country will gradually lose her 

 commanding position in the world's markets. Russia is 

 embroiled in a great and devastating war, from which 

 she is not likely to be released for some time. Even 

 after peace, that country, in common with many others, 

 will produce for some time with greatly impaired factors. 

 The rapidly rising standard of comfort in India will 

 diminish her exports in the immediate future, even 

 though her production may increase. China and Japan 

 will demand an ever increasing quantity, and assist 

 materially in keeping prices high. 



In Canada and Argentina progress is inevitable during 

 the next few years. These countries, especially the 

 former, are ready to develop at a very rapid rate if 

 only the opportunity is forthcoming, and in the immedi- 

 ate future prices will be high and production there will 

 continue to progress. Wheat producers may therefore 

 look forward to the coming ten years at least with 

 comparative satisfaction to reasonably high prices. 



Ultimately, however, we shall reach another stage in 

 which wheat production may prove relatively unprofit- 

 able;* for the total supplies of the world will steadily 

 increase and thus tend to lower prices or, at least, to 



*See footnote on page 297. 



