276 LIFE OF SIR JOHN LUBBOCK oh. 



and to destroy or divert our carrying trade. The 

 exemption of our carrying trade from capture by French 

 Cruizers would render this object unattainable. 



In any such proposal directly emanating from us, the 

 French would at once smell a rat ; and they would meet 

 it with the stock arguments, that private property 

 stands by sea and land in totally different relations to 

 the War Power : that trading or passenger ships may, 

 in time of war, be easily converted into transport ships, 

 or even into war ships for the repair of a naval disaster ; 

 and that therefore such ships cannot be exempted from 

 the risk of capture without thereby augmenting an 

 enemy's naval resources in exact proportion to the 

 magnitude and importance of his mercantile marine. 

 And, moreover, that an enemy's mercantile marine being 

 the natural recruiting ground of her navy, its liability 

 to destruction is a no less natural condition of belli- 

 gerency. 



The French are now living in constant apprehension 

 of a war with Germany which might possibly assume 

 European proportions, and which would in any case be 

 to France a life and death struggle. The action or 

 inaction of the Naval power of England is one of the 

 contingencies which they are bound to take into account 

 in their preparations for such a struggle. They have 

 spent millions on the augmentation of their land forces, 

 and are beginning to think more about their navy. No 

 French Cabinet could survive a popular impression that 

 it had taken any step calculated to weaken the offensive 

 power of the country, by land or sea, in the event of 

 war ; and the French carrying trade is insignificant as 

 compared to ours. The main object of every French 

 Cabinet is to avoid exposing itself to Parliamentary 

 attack — and the present French Cabinet is on the eve 

 of a general Election, the results of which may possibly 

 change the whole constitution of the State. It would be 

 idle to attempt any serious negociation with a weak and 

 unpopular Government in this position. Whatever the 

 present French Cabinet might agree to would most 

 probably be rejected and cancelled by the next Parlia- 

 ment ; whilst on the other hand, an unfavourable 

 declaration of opinion by the present Cabinet might 

 prejudice the chance of raising the question under more 

 promising conditions hereafter. 



