310 LIFE OF SIR JOHN LUBBOCK ch. 



nor could we attack foreign countries without damaging 

 our own property. Our Navy exceeded that of any 

 two Powers, but our mercantile marine exceeded that 

 of all the other European Powers put together. Take 

 two typical countries — Germany and Spain. He was 

 not one of those who believed in a war with Germany. 

 Our main interests and those of Germany were identical. 

 He knew, and he was sure that Germans knew, that the 

 day war was declared would be a black day for both. 

 He only took Germany as an illustration. Our mercan- 

 tile marine was over 12,000,000 tons, that of Germany 

 under 3,000,000, and that of Spain under 500,000. Our 

 exports were over £556,000,000, those of Germany 

 £367,000,000, and of Spain £40,000,000. Of the German 

 amount, however, by far the greater part went overland. 

 That which went by sea, and which alone we could 

 confiscate, was under £90,000,000, as compared with the 

 £566,000,000 which we had at stake. In most cases 

 the difference was even greater. It should be remembered 

 also that foreign property was largely insured in our 

 English insurance companies. Moreover, as merchants 

 must have a clean policy of insurance, they must, if 

 we were at war, pay a war risk on goods in our ships, 

 while they would not have to do so if they shipped in 

 neutral vessels. The rate, no doubt, would be low, 

 but the profits of ship-owners were not high, and the 

 effect would be to give foreign ship-owners a substantial 

 advantage. 



It was said sometimes that under the Declaration of 

 Paris privateering was abolished, but the new arrange- 

 ment of arming swift ocean steamers practically re- 

 introduced it. 



Again, the fact that we were an island made the 

 matter much more important. Our imports all came 

 by sea ; those of other countries came to a great extent 

 overland, and in war even more would do so. Our 

 stake at risk could not therefore be measured by the 

 amount of imports, because much of theirs came by 

 land, while all of ours arrived by sea. 



In fact our risk compared with that of other countries 

 was, to use a well-known saying, like Lombard Street 

 to a China orange. 



We had heard a great deal of late about our supplies 

 of raw materials and of food in times of war. There 



