FERTILITY 659 



There is abundant evidence that in most civilised countries at 

 the present time the birth-rate (that is, the proportion of the 

 children born to the population) is tending to decrease, while in 

 some countries the actual population is diminishing. This decline 

 in the birth-rate has been made the subject of statistical inquiries 

 by Newsholme and Stevenson, 1 and Udny Yule. 2 These writers 

 have shown that the observed fall is not simply a consequence of 

 changes in the ages of the people, or in the proportion of married 

 to single women, for allowing for such alterations as have occurred, 

 the number of births per 100,000 of the population in England and 

 Wales, for example, has dropped from 32:56 in 1861 to 2729 in 1901. 

 Yule concludes that " the main factor in the fall of the birth-rate 

 has been a decrease in the fertility of married women: this fall has 

 been proceeding at an accelerating speed." 3 



The decline in the birth-rate (so far as England and Wales are 

 concerned) is not appreciably greater in the towns than in the rural 

 districts. It is, however, especially marked in places inhabited by 

 the servant-keeping class. 4 It appears to be greatest in those 

 sections of the population which give evidence of the exercise of 

 thrift and foresight, for Heron 5 has shown that the more cultured, 

 prosperous, and healthy classes are producing fewer children than 

 those belonging to a lower social status. Marriage fertility is on the 

 whole graduated continuously from a very low h'gure for the upper and 

 professional classes to a very much higher figure for unskilled labour. 6 



There is no direct evidence that this decline in the birth-rate is 

 due to an increase of sterility, for congenital unavoidable sterility 

 in either sex is rare. The inference has been drawn, therefore, that 

 the decline is principally the result of deliberate volition in the 

 regulation of the married state. Evidence that this inference is 

 correct is provided by the Fabian Society, whose report indicates 

 that the practice of limitation prevails with at least one-half, if 

 not three-fourths, of all the married people of Great Britain. 

 The statistics collected from other countries point in a . similar 

 direction. This is noticeably the case for New South Wales, 



1 Newsholme and Stevenson, "The Decline of Human Fertility in the 

 United Kingdom, etc.," Jour. Royal Statis. Soc., 1906. 



2 Yule, " On the Changes in the Marriage and Birth-Rates, etc.," Jour. Royal 

 Statis. Soc., 1906. 



3 Yule, The Fall of the Birth-Rate, Cambridge, 1920. (With further references.) 



4 Sidney Webb, TJic. Decline in the Birth-Rate, Fabian Soc. Tract, London, 1907. 



5 Heron, "On the Eelation of Fertility in Man to Social Status, etc.," 

 Drapers' Company Memoir, London, 1906. 



6 The Population Problem, a Study in IJuman Evolution (Oxford, 1922), 

 is ably discussed by Carr-Saunders, who writes as follows : " It is forgotten 

 that the reduction in the birth-rate may be that which economic conditions 

 demand, and that it may of necessity have to begin with the upper classes. 

 Though, therefore, differential fertility by producing unfavourable germinal 

 changes is to that degree to be deplored, yet we have to remember that so far as 

 quantity is concerned, failure to meet economic requirements might be a much 

 greater misfortune." 



