Canadian Forestry Journal, February, 1919 



79 



WORLD DEMAND SHORTENS LIFE OF OUR FORESTS 



By F. J. Campbell, President, Canadian Pulp and Paper Association, 



in an Address at Annual Meeting Canadian Forestry 



Association, Montreal, January 29th. 



Has Quebec Enough Pulpwood to Last Longer 



Than 22 Years? A Vital Industrial 



Problem. 



The question of the relationship of our in- 

 dustry to the maintenance of forest material is 

 of such very great importance that I appreciate 

 it a privilege to put a few figures before you and 

 leave you to do your own thinking about them. 



It is estimated that the standing pulpwood in 

 the Province of Quebec at the present time 

 amounts to 300,000,000 cords, but the best 

 authorities agree that this is little better than an 

 average of guesses and until such time as we 

 have a comprehensive stock-taking our estimates 

 are of questionable value. 



Eliminating what is being burned and other- 

 wise destroyed, what is being opened up to settle- 

 ment and cut for lumber and deducting what is 

 absolutely inaccessible and what is commerci- 

 ally inaccessible, my own guess is that the 

 available supply of pulpwood is about one half 

 of the amount mentioned, or 150,000,000 cords. 

 This IS borne out by a review of the estimate 

 made in 1904 by Mr. J. C. Langelier, Inspector 

 of Forest Rangers for the Province of Quebec. 

 At that time Mr. Langelier estimated the avail- 

 able supply of pulpwood as 176,783,966 cords 

 and the consumption at that time as 526,865 

 cords per annum and he estimated that at the 

 then prevailing rate of consumption, our forest 

 supply in the Province of Quebec would last 

 over 334 years. This was just fifteen years ago. 



The consumption of pulpwood cut in this 

 province in the year 1916, the latest complete 

 figures available, amount to 1,711,151 cords, 

 which is 3'/4 times that of 1904. 



During those twelve years we had cut ap- 

 proximately 1 3'/2 million cords, reducing the 

 available supply based on Mr. Langelier's figures 

 to approximately 163 million cords. Thus three 

 years ago Mr. Langelier's figures came within 

 13 million cords of my present guess. 



Basing an estimate in the same manner as that 

 employed by Mr. Langelier and dividing our 

 current consumption in 1916 of 1.711,000 cords 



into available supply of 163,000,000 cords, we 

 find that instead of having 334 years' supply, 

 less twelve that have passed, or 322 years ahead 

 of us, and making no allowances for further 

 increase, our supply based on consumption in 

 1916 would last just 95 years; a wonderful 

 difference in the course of twelve years. 



We have seen that in twelve years our cut 

 has increased 314^'^. and we might perhaps base 

 the future consumption as increasing at the same 

 ratio but so as to be on the safe side let us con- 

 sider that the increase during the next twelve 

 years will be in direct ratio to that of the pre- 

 vious twelve years, in which case our consump- 

 tion in 1928 will be at the rate of three million 

 cords and we shall have used by that time 28 

 million cords, bringing down our available sup- 

 ply to 1 35 million cords. 



Again basing the future supply on the con- 

 sumption of three million cords per annum, 

 which we shall then have reached, the available 

 supply will be sufficient for 45 years more, pro- 

 viding the consumption shows no further in- 

 crease. 



When we consider that in the space of 24 

 years, owing to increased consumption, our ex- 

 pectancy of supply has dwindled from 334 years 

 to 45 years, the figures appear almost incredible. 

 Even if we take the figures of our available 

 supply as entirely hypothetical the extraordinary 

 growth of our consumption still giv?s us ground 

 for serious thought. Whatever the supply, we 

 know that it is not increasing, while the con- 

 sumption is growing rapidly, not steadily but 

 with astounding rapidity. 



The fact remains that with a given supply, 

 whether right or wrong. 24 from 334 leaves, not 

 310 but 45 a startling difference. 



It may be questioned as to whether we are 

 justified in looking for the increase in consump- 

 tion on which these figures are based. As a 

 matter of fact. I think we may count that they 

 are under the mark. 



