132 



NA TURE 



[December 6, 1900 



Rain from 

 - pulse 



No rain pulse 



Rain Trom 

 + pulse 



No rain pulse 



Rain from 

 - pulse 



n 



78 



79 (part) 



79 (part) 



80 (central year) 



81 (part) 

 (•81 (part) 



82 

 J83 



f 84 (pari) 

 I 84 (part) 



"1 vl f (central years) 

 ! 87 (part) 

 f 87 (part) 



NORMAL. EXCESS. NORMAL. 



Fig. 3. 



The duration of these + and - pulses of rainfall was 

 determined in the first instance by the Mauritius rainfall, 

 which shows both pulses ; and later from the Malabar 

 rainfall, which perhaps shows the effect of the south-west 

 monsoon in its greatest purity. 



All the Indian famines since 1836 (we have not gone 

 back further) have occurred in these intervals, carried 

 back in time on the assumption of an 11 year cycle. 



The following tables show the result for the two 

 intervals : — 



The interval between the ptilses, taking 1880 as the central year, 

 on the upward curve. 

 1880, Madras famine. 

 N.W.P. famine. 



NO. 1623. VOL. 63] 



1880-11 = 1869, N.W.P. famine (1868-9). 

 1869-11 = 1858, N.W.P. famine (i860). 

 1858-11 = 1847. 



1847 - 1 1 = 1836, Upper India famine (1837-8). 

 (Great famine). 



The interval between the pulses, taking 1885-6 as the central 

 years, on the descending curve. 



1885-6-11 = 1874-5, N.W.P. famine (1873-4). 



Bombay famine (1875-6). 



Bombay famine \ , g ^ , 



Upper India famine/^^^'O-?). 

 1874-5- 11 = 1863-4, Madras famine) ,0^, ^> 



Orissa famine /^'«^5-&)- 

 1863-4 -11 = 1852-3, Madras famine (1854). 



It is clear from the above table 

 that if as much had been known 

 in 1836 as we know now, the 

 probability of famines at all the 

 subsequent dates indicated in the 

 above tables might have been 

 foreseen. 



The region of time from which 

 the above results have been ob- 

 tained extended from 1877 to 

 1886. The next table will show 

 that if the dates, instead of being 

 carried back, are carried forward, 

 the same principle enables us to 

 pick up the famines which have 

 devastated India during the period 

 1886-97. 



Same intervals, going forward. 

 1880. 

 + 11 1891, N.W.P. famine (1890). 

 Madras (amine ^ 

 Bombay famine |-(l89l-2). 

 Bengal famine J 

 1885-6 

 + 11 1896-7, General famine. 



This result has arisen, so far as 

 we can see, from the fact that the 

 + and - pulses included in the 

 period 1877- 1886 were normal, 

 that is, were not great departures 

 from the average. 



Nile Floods. 



After we had obtained the 

 above results relating to the law 

 followed by the Indian famines, 

 we communicated with the 

 Egyptian authorities with a view 

 of obtaining data for the Nile 

 Valley. 



We have since found, however, 

 from a memorandum by Eliot,^ 

 that Mr. Willcocks, in a paper read at the Meteoro- 

 logical Congress at Chicago, remarked that " famine 

 years in India are generally years of low flood in 

 Egypt." 



It remains only for us, therefore, to point out that the 

 highest Niles follow the years of the + and - pulses. 

 Thus : — 



1871, one year after + pulse 1870. 



1876, two years after subsidiary pulse of 1874. 



1879, two years after — pulse 1877. 



1883-4, one and two years after + pulse 1882. 



1893-4, after + pulse 1892 (India excess rainfall, 1892-3-4). 



1 Forecast of S. W. Monsoon rains of 1900. 



NORMAL. GREATEST GOOD 

 OtFIClENCY RA1N3. 

 ON RECORD 

 OVER LARGEST 

 AREA. 



