THE SMUGGLER. 15 



Tlio darker and the graver traveller made no reply, but the 

 other smiled good-humouredly, and inquired 



"May I ask by what you judged; for to me the morning 

 seemed to promise anything but fine weather?" 



"Two things, two things, my dear sir," answered the gen- 

 tleman in black. "An old proverb and a bad almanack." 



"Indeed!" exclaimed the other. "I should have thought 

 it a very good almanack if it told me to a certainty what sort 

 of weather it would be." 



" Ay, but how did it tell me?" rejoined the elderly traveller, 

 leaning his hand upon the gold head of his cane. " It de- 

 clared we should have torrents of rain. Now, sir, the world 

 is composed of a great mass of fools with a small portion of 

 sensible men, who, like a little quantity of yeast in a large 

 quantity of dough, makes the dumpling not quite so bad as it 

 might be. Of all the fools that I ever met with, however, 

 the worst are scientific fools, for they apply themselves to tell 

 all the other fools in the world that of which they themselves 

 know nothing, or at all events very little, which is worse. I 

 have examined carefully, in the course of a long life, how to 

 deal with these gentry, and I find that if you believe the exact 

 reverse of any information they give you, you will be right 

 nine hundred and ninety-seven times out of a thousand. I 

 made a regular calculation of it some years ago: and although 

 at first sight it would seem that the chances are equal, that 

 these men should be right or wrong, I found the result as I 

 have stated, and have acted upon it ever since in perfect 

 security. If they trusted to mere guess work, the chances 

 might, perhaps, be equal, but they make such laborious endea- 

 vours to lead themselves wrong, and so studiously avoid every- 

 thing that could lead them right, that the proportion is vastly 

 against them." 



" If such be their course of proceeding, the result will be 

 naturally as you say," answered the gentleman to whom he 

 spoke; "but I should think that, as the variations of the 

 weather must proceed from natural causes constantly recurring, 

 observation and calculation might arrive at some certainty re- 

 garding them." 



" Hold the sea in the hollow of your hand," cried the old 

 gentleman, impatiently; " make the finite contain the infinite; 

 put twenty thousand gallons into a pint pot, and when you 



