346 



NATURE 



[July 4, 191 8 



(2) .That sugar produced by our Allies be granted 

 preferential treatment to the extent of i2\ per cent, 

 on the tariff in force. This corresponds with a 

 reduction of the duty by \d. per lb. 



(^) That sugar produced by neutral countries 

 should pav the full tariff without any reduction. 



As regards home-grown sugar the Organisation 

 recognises that some degree of protection will be 

 absolutely necessary if capital is to be attracted lo 

 the new' industry,' and it suggests that " the 

 difference between excise on home-grown bett- 

 sugar and the duty on Empire-grown cane-sugar 

 shall be 2I. 6s. Sd. per ton until the crop of home- 

 grown sugar reaches 50,ooo«tons per annum, after 

 which such advantage would cease." 



These proposals will doubtless be fiercely 

 opposed by all to whom the word "Protection " is 

 anathema. But the events of the time, and the 

 chastening influence of the conditions which have 

 been forced upon us by the Central Powers in the 

 effort by the most powerful of them to secure the 

 domination of the world, have profoundly modified 

 our views on many matters. The Government has 

 now agreed to the principles of Imperial prefer- 

 ence, and the policy of preferential treatment of 

 • our .Allies has been embodied in the resolutions ot 

 the Paris Economic Conference. 



In regard to tariffs the matter now resolves itself 

 into a question of details, and if the nation is deter- 

 mined, as it no doubt is, that the disadvantage 

 under which it has suffered shall never again arise, 

 but that the machinations of our arch-enemy shall 

 be effectually checkmated, once and for ever, there 

 should be little or no difficulty in arriving at a 

 satisfactory adjustment. T. E. Thorpe. 



THE MINERAL WEALTH OF GERMANY. 

 '''PHE Fortnightly Review iov June contains an 

 -*■ interesting article by " Politicus " on " The 

 Natural Wealth of Germany," in which parti- 

 cular stress is laid upon the immense value of the 

 a^set represented by that country's mineral 

 possessions. These are tolerably accurately 

 known, because in Germany the State owns the 

 minerals and has therefore taken good care to have 

 a complete and scientific inventory made of its 

 mineral resources. The facts as to Germany's 

 mineral riches are thus readily accessible, and 

 ample statistical information is available on the 

 subject. Taking the three undoubtedly most 

 important of Germany's mineral products, namely, 

 coal, iron-ore, and potash salts, the author of the 

 article in question arrives at the startling conclu- 

 sion that the value of these is close upon 240,000 

 millions sterling, out of which coal alone represents 

 89 per cent. A German poet has long ago warned 

 the world that no prudent fighter underrates his 

 foe, but it is perhaps almost as grave a blunder to 

 overestimate his powers, and there is no difficulty 

 in showing that this is what " Politicus " has done 

 to an enormous extent. 



It will be easiest to commence with coal, this 

 being, as stated, by far the most important factor, 

 whilst abundant statistics are available for discuss- 

 NO. 2540, VOL. lOl] 



ing the question. " Politicus " takes the report 

 submitted to the International Geological Congress 

 in 191 3, which gave the coal resources of Germany 

 at about 400,000 million tons. He says simply 

 that "at the very low average price of 10s. per ton 

 at the pit's mouth " this coal is worth more than 

 200,000 millions sterling. He forgets, apparently, 

 that this coal is not at the pit's mouth — it is deep 

 within the bowels of the earth. The value of 10s. 

 per ton at the pit's mouth may be readily accepted 

 as a fair figure, but this is assuredly not the value 

 of the coal in its unsevered condition. In a recent 

 paper on the subject the writer of the present 

 article showed that the value of coal at the pit's 

 mouth in Great Britain amounted to about 10s. per 

 ton in 191 3, and that this price was made up of : — 

 Royalty 5'35 per cent., wages 62'55 per cent., 

 materials iry45 per cent., administration 7 per 

 cent., and interest and profit 8'65 per cent. It is 

 surely obvious that it is only the first item which 

 represents the value of the coal as it lies in the 

 ground; and that out of the value of 10s. at the 

 pit's mouth gs. 6d. represents the cost of getting 

 and raising it, so that its real value is only the 

 balance of 6d. Certain American figures also 

 quoted by the author of the article show that the 

 royalty value of the coal — that is, the value of the 

 coal as it lies in the seam — is less than 4 per cent, 

 of its cost at the pit's mouth in the United States, 

 so that the figure of 5 per cent, of the vafue at the 

 surface here adopted may be considered to represent 

 very closely the general value and can be applied 

 to the German conditions without much risk of 

 error. Hence, so far, the figure given by 

 " Politicus " would appear to be twenty times too 

 great, and his 200,000 millions would be reduced 

 to 10,000 millions. 



Even this latter figure is, however, a great over- 

 estimate, and that for a reason that "Politicus" 

 has also overlooked. It has been seen that coal 

 in the unsevered condition is worth -6^. per ton, 

 but this 6^. is realisable only as and when the 

 coal is won. A ton of coal that is to be won a 

 century from now is worth to-day, not 6d., but 

 only o'0456d., or less than the twentieth part of a 

 penny, allowing interest at 5 per cent. This quite' 

 : obvious consideration, that a sum of money, 

 I receivable at a distant date, is worth to-day only 

 i the amount which, if allowed to accumulate at 



interest, would produce the sum m question, must 

 profoundly influence the present value of coal to 

 be w'on at a remote date, but it has been entirely 

 omitted from the calculation. It is true that it is 

 onlv possible to compute the present value of Ger- 

 many's coal reserves by making a series of assump- 

 tions, yet by means of these we are able to 

 determine', at any rate, the order of magnitude of 

 the figures involved. In 191 3, the coal production 

 of Germanv was about 150 million tons; if it be 

 assumed that this increases by 50 million tons 

 annually, the production in a century would be at 

 the rate of 5150 million tons per year, and the 

 total quantity worked during the century would be 

 265,000 million tons, or more than half the known 

 coal resources of the country. No one can pos- 



