370 



NATURE 



[July ii, 1918 



. THE CEREAL BALANCE. 

 A S the harvest year of 1917-18 approaches its 

 **- end the question of the relation between 

 suppHes and rate of consumption of bread-corn 

 assumes increased interest and importance. 

 Europe and North America are breaking into their 

 last reserves of home-produced cereals of the 191 7 

 crop. If these prove inadequate to meet require- 

 ments from the present time until August next, 

 what is the world reserve available to bridge the 

 gap between the old and the new crop? The reply 

 is given by the International Institute of Agri- 

 culture in a valuable analysis of supplies and 

 requirements recently issued.^ The analysis covers 

 the agricultural season beginning with August, 

 1917, and ending with July, 1918, and is based 

 upon returns as to production and estimated con- 

 sumption of cereals ^n ajl important countries 

 where international trade has been maintained, 

 ancluditng, therefore, all Entente and neutral 

 countries, but excluding Russia and Roumania. 



As regards supplies, the relative yields of ; 

 cereals in 1917 "(northern hemispheie) and 1917-18 

 (southern hemisphere) as compared with the 

 .previous season (a), and with the average of the 

 three preceding seasons, 1914-16 (h), are shown, 

 by the following summary : — 



\a) (/■) 



per cent. per cent. 



Wheat J032 90-4 



Rye 942 917 



Barley 103-8 101-3 



Oats ' 114-0 uo-6 



Maize ... ... i2ro 113-3 



In the aggregate the cereal ^crops of 1917 show 

 an increase of .223 million quintals over 1916, or 

 72 million quintals over the average of the three 

 years 1914— 16, the increases being mainly due to 

 last summer's abundant crops of oats and maize 

 in the United States. Wheat alone shows an 

 increase of 19 million quintals over 1916, and a 

 decrease of 64^^ million quintals as compared with 

 the three-year average. 



To these supplies the carry-over from 

 previous crops needs to be added, but very few 

 countries have been able to show any such 

 reserves in excess of the usual carry-over, 

 Australia being the outstanding exception. 



When these estimates of supplies are compared 

 with the estimates of requirements up to next 

 harvest supplied to the institute by the various 

 Governments, the following margins of assets 

 over liabilities (in millions of quintals) are shown 

 for the different crops : — 



Wheat ... 44| I Oats ... 62 i 



Rye'... ... 2I Maize ... 157" 



Barley ... \2h \ 



or a total reserve of assets beyond requirements 

 of 279 million quintals. The preponderance of 

 oats and maize in this surplus is a factor to be 

 considered in determining its real value. The 

 light natural weight of the oat grain interferes 

 with transport under conditions of shortage of 



1 "Sutistical Notes on the Cereals." Xo. 7, pp. 136. (Rome: Intern.it. 

 Inst. Agric, 1918.) 



tonnage, and consequently in many countries the 

 consumption must be limited to the home-growth, 

 within a very small margin. The handsome sur- 

 plus of maize is the result of the very large crop 

 of the United States, but so far it has unfortunately 

 been most difficult to transport owing to the risk 

 of heating consequent on an abnormally high 

 moisture-content. 



Earlier forecasts of the situation suggested 

 the probability of an actual deficit of supplies, and 

 it is all the more welcome, therefore, to find, now 

 that more trustworthy data are available, that so 

 far from this being the case the world, taken as a 

 whole, has ample supplies to meet all its 

 requirements. 



The real gravity of the situation lies in the fact 

 that the large reserves are in a few countries, such 

 as Australia, Argentina, British India, and North 

 America, while there is a large deficiency in 

 Europe. Transportation is notoriously surrounded 

 with difficulties owing to the scarcity of tonnage 

 and the enormous rise in rates of ocean freight. 

 The cost of carrying a quarter of wheat from 

 Argentina to Great Britain is twenty times what 

 it was before the war, and other freights have 

 advanced in like manner. 



It is clear, therefore, that the disclosure of a 

 substantial world reserve of cereals in no way 

 diminishes the need for the utmost effort to extend 

 cereaj production and to economise in cereal 

 consumption in the countries where a deficiency 

 exists and in countries nearest to them. The 

 greater the success of this effort the more 

 effective will the worid reserve be in augmenting 

 supplies and reducing prices in the future when 

 a greatly increased tonnage becomes again avail- 

 able for the grain trade. 



DR. G. K. GILBERT. 



ON May i a very notable figure passed away 

 from the ; field of geological discovery and 

 research. Dr. Grove Karl Gilbert was born ini 

 Rochester, N.Y. , in 1843, and had thus almost 

 completed his seventy-fifth year. In his " Report 

 on the Geology of the Henry Mountains," issued 

 by the U.S. Geographical and Geological Survey 

 of the Rocky Mountain region in 1877, he de- 

 veloped the theory of the expansion of intrusive 

 igneous sheets into the great cauldron-like masses 

 that he conveniently styled "laccolites" (stone 

 cisterns), and the rapid recognition of laccolites 

 throughout the world bore witness to the cogency 

 of his exposition. From 1879 onwards he was at- 

 tached to the staff of the U.S. Geological Survey, 

 and it is not too much to say that his reports helped 

 considerably to direct general .scientific attention to 

 the earlier publications of that body. His "Con- 

 tributions to the History of Lake Bonneville " in 

 1882, and his monograph on "Lake Bonneville" 

 in 1890, became classics for the treatment of van- 

 ished lakes in other areas, and also raised import- 

 ant questions as to crustal yielding under load. 



An excellent example of Dr. Gilbert's approach 

 to difficult problems may be found in his study of 



NO. 2541, VOL. lOl] 



