xxxi.] LIMITS OF SCIENTIFIC METHOD. 761 



phases of intellectual condition, the theological, the 

 metaphysical, and the positive; applying this general 

 law of progress to concrete cases, Comte was enabled 

 to predict that in the hierarchy of European nations, 

 Spain would necessarily hold the highest place. Such 

 are the parodies of science offered to us by the positive 

 philosophers. 



A science of history in the true sense of the term is 

 an absurd notion. A nation is not a mere sum of indi- 

 viduals whom we can treat by the method of averages ; 

 it is an organic whole, held together by ties of infinite 

 complexity. Each individual acts and re-acts upon his 

 smaller or greater circle of friends, and those who acquire 

 a public position exert an influence on much larger sections 

 of the nation. There will always be a few great leaders 

 of exceptional genius or opportunities, the unaccountable 

 phases of whose opinions and inclinations sway the whole 

 body. From time to time arise critical situations, battles, 

 delicate negotiations, internal disturbances, in which the 

 slightest incidents may change the course of history. A 

 rainy day may hinder a forced march, and change the course 

 of a campaign ; a few injudicious words in a despatch may 

 irritate the national pride ; the accidental discharge of a 

 gun may precipitate a collision the effects of which will 

 last for centuries. It is said that the history of Europe 

 depended at one moment upon the question whether the 

 look-out man upon Nelson's vessel would or would not 

 descry a ship of Napoleon's expedition to Egypt which was 

 passing not far off. In human affairs, then, the smallest 

 causes may produce the greatest effects, and the real appli- 

 cation of scientific method is out of the question. 



The Theory of Evolution. 



Profound philosophers have lately generalised concerning 

 the production of living forms and the mental and moral 

 phenomena regarded as their highest development. Herbert 

 Spencer's theory of evolution purports to explain the origin 

 of all specific differences, so that not even the rise of a 

 Homer or a Beethoven would escape from his broad theories. 

 The homogeneous is unstable and must differentiate 

 itself, says Spencer, and hence comes the variety of human 



