i84 



NATURE 



[October 30, 19 19 



mixture of Socialism and tyranny which necessity 

 dictated. Under extreme pressure scientific know- 

 ledge, technical slvill, industrial ability, military and 

 naval experience welded into a homogeneous and 

 efficient organisation. 



It is easy to disparage the effort or to point to 

 defects, large or small, which tarnish the record, but 

 the fact remains that, whereas in 1914 we were 

 inferior to the enemy in every military asset except 

 moral courage, in 1918 victory came as the result of 

 mastery in practically all the thousand factors en 

 which modern warfare depends. 



The organisation involved the direct control of 

 food, every essential raw material, shipping, and 

 transport; further, under the cloak of various 

 euphemisms, it involved the indirect control of all 

 available capital and labour. The capitalist was 

 granted the privilege of receiving and paving the 

 interest on the money required. High wages and the 

 Military Conscription Act ensured an adequate supply 

 of labour in the factories. And these things came to 

 pass, not by the tyrannical order of an all-powerful 

 Government, but by the force of a great idea working 

 within the nation. 



n. — Industrial and Economic Reconstruction. 



The peace declaration is the opening of a new act 

 in the world's greatest drama, and the events of the 

 next few years will decide the fate of many genera- 

 tions. The future is always the logical sequence of 

 the past; it is the present which gives direction to 

 the forces which are acting in virtue of the ideals 

 which are operative. The world is emerging from 

 a furnace, and the rigid constitution of civilisation, 

 for a moment plastic, will harden in the mould we 

 form. It is, therefore, the duty of each one of us 

 to attempt to understand the transformation which is 

 going on, and influence it in the right direction. 



The principal feature of the day is the insistent 

 craving for better and easier conditions of life; in 

 popular language, this is quite inaccurately expressed 

 by a demand for higher wages and less work. The 

 two aims are far from identical ; in fact, a little 

 consideration will show that in some respects they 

 are contradictory. 



The total remuneration received by a nation is 

 measured by its production, and this law cannot be 

 altered or affected by legislation or revolution. On 

 the other hand, the share received by a class or an 

 individual is capable of adjustment' within certain 

 limits. Thus any class may increase its remunera- 

 tion either by increasing the total production or by 

 decreasing the remuneration received bv the other 

 classes. The capitalist who corners wheat, and the 

 miner who corners coal, are examples of the latter 

 method. No such limitations exist, however, with 

 regard to the face-value of the wages paid ; bv Act 

 of Parliament all wages might be increased arbitrarilv 

 twentyfold. but as a result the cost of living would 

 rise to a similar ratio. 



Incalculable harm has been done by ignorance and 

 wilful misrepresentation. During a generation the 

 working classes have been told, and have firmlv 

 believed, that they receive but a tithe of the value 

 of their wD'k, and that the bulk goes to swell the 

 fortune of the capitalistic class. The actual facts so 

 far as engineering is concerned will be found in the 

 address of my predecessor in this chair. On an 

 average in pre-war davs the share of the capitalist 

 was one-ninth that of the workman. The actual 

 position with regard to coal is now known to all. 

 For each ton raised 19^. <,id. goes for labour, and a 

 total of 2S. is paid as rovalties, owners' profits, and 

 owners' compensation. It is obvious that the 135. 

 NO. 2609, VOL. 104] 



rise in the miner's wages cannot be paid out of 

 profits and royalties amounting to a total of 2s., but 

 the miner, who has been brought up to believe in 

 the fabulous profits of the wicked duke, is quite ready 

 to strike against the owners, the Government, anci 

 the laws of arithmetic. 



These facts, though clearly established, arc not 

 easily credited by the working man ; he mav have 

 received a penny for what he considers is the manu- 

 facture of an article, and sees it selling for a shilling 

 in a shop. He forgets that the price must include, 

 not only his wage, but that of the men in the mine, 

 the smelting works, and the rolling mill, who pro- 

 vided the material in the shape required, the wages 

 of the men who built the factory in which he works 

 and made the machine he uses, the wages of trans- 

 port workers, packers, shop assistants, advertising 

 agents, printer, papermakers, etc., and that, finally, 

 some minute fraction of a farthing might with justice 

 be allotted to the engineer who designed the machine 

 or invented the process. The general position, though 

 similar, cannot, unfortunatelv, be followed so closelv ; 

 the limitations, however, are clear. The income of 

 the United Kingdom per head of the population was 

 before the war about 50L If, therefore, the Stfte 

 were run on completelv communistic lines, and if 

 under these conditions there were no reduction either 

 in the working hours or the output, our wages would 

 average a sovereign a week each, and we could 6uy 

 our goods at pre-war prices.' 



The above considerations indicate that a real im- 

 provement in material welfare is necessarilv associated 

 with increased production. The needs of mankind 

 are many, its desires are unlimited, and for this 

 reason general o\-er-production need never arise. 

 Many circumstances may, however, lead lo uneven 

 balance, and, unfortunatelv, when this occurs, the 

 producers of the commoditv which is in excess are 

 penalised, and those responsible for a deficiencv are 

 rewarded. The instabilitv is fostered and increased bv 

 soeculation, and. although it forms the most nowerful 

 check on national prosperity, no serious effort has 

 yet been made to applv a remedv. 



I am inclined to think that two of the most irn- 

 oortant problems of our time relate to economic 

 balance and increased production. The solution in 

 the former case is dependent on the statesman, t!ie 

 economist, and the business man, in the latter on 

 the combined efforts of various branches of apoliod 

 science, and more especially on engineering. 



At one time production was directly dependent on 

 muscular effort; it is now mainly influenced bv equip- 

 ment, organisation, and skill. Increased production 

 does not necessarilv implv harder work or longer 

 hours ; it can be secured bv improvements in method 

 and machinery, but only wnth the willing co-operation 

 of all concerned. 



Before the war the Americans were far ahead of 

 us in stardardisation and specialised machinery. The 

 American clock and the Ford car are two well-known 

 examples. During the war we adopted and developed 

 these methods.. As a result, although the cost of all 

 materials increased considerably, although the wages 

 more than doubled and the profits were more than 

 adequate, the cost was in many cases reduced. Thus 

 the eighteen-nounder shell fell from 22.^. to 12.9.. the 

 Lewis gun from i6:;Z. to 62?. The importance of 

 standardisation has been fu1lv realised bv the manu- 

 facturers of thi= country, and as a result we may hope 

 to see a general reduction in cost. 



The economic value of an individual depends 

 exclusively on the nature, quality, and quantity of 



1 This statement is optimistic in so far' as it dees not taVeaccount of war 

 losses. 



