

1C 



It is obvious her-.' that the n umber of i -o\\ - i- estimated by .ij)|i|\ in- to the n i 

 bulls an ;i\ if eighteen eo\\s to eaeh harem. On ( --halt' of the 



irk;ihlc for thiM- agreement with Colonel Mm. - '| u . 



other halt' arc lor ll eir complete discrepancy. 



The numb'.'!- of hull* assigned to St. Paul Ishnd (vix.., -I. ''7-1 is very near 

 Colonel Murray for lS'.if, (vi/.. 4,'TJ")) and about identical v. 

 (vix... -4,:, 



Hut .Ii: 'ion <<>r St. < - three titu ;he 



bulls than i iH Murray for the >a:iu- year ISM;,, and twice a. >>ig as Colonel 



Mi; i- IS'.K;. the oilier hand, ot .Indue C row ley's lowe-ti' 



eighteen cows to a harem is to bring out a number of eo\vs for S: . .imutcly 



il to tl'is year's, but to give to St. I'aul for IN("> only three-fifths of what we now 

 believe to cxiM there. 



Melon- passing fron, the later to the earlier numerical estimates. I would <! 



a passage on pp. _'<'. '2\, of Dr. Jordan's preliminary Report. Dr. Jordan 

 : 



"Accepting the figures ot last year, 70,423 COWS OT1 the rookeries would iiM'tin an 



of I'J cows. To ibis number must be added 'J.*,000 to 40,000 



virgin --year-olds and as many yearlings to lorm an estimate of the actual number of 



eo\\s for IS! if). That the figures given by us for 1896 are slightly higher than those for 



18<r .ot mean an increase in numbers sii . but simply an increase in the data 



on which an estimate may be made. Messrs. True and Townsend. for example, count 



i) co\\s on Kitovi Kookery. This count is the most important element in their 



estimate by acreage. In this estimate, Kitovi is given credit for 3^ per cent, of the total 



number ">K This ti-inv car. not be far from the truth. But the fact that, 



in l^'Jti, ii 'trie shrinkage, Kitovi shows fi.u t!) pups, demonstrates that the 



fiirii: mts n ade at th . of the season are far from complete: h',()-i 



er c.nt. of HJi.i 



Ndw, passing over the apparent laet that the phrase " in spite of some shrinkage" 

 -iii-s of a beiriimir of the ijiR'stion. the one lliini; that this paragraph appear* to me to 

 prove is the surprising accuracy o< True and Townsend's estimate ot 3$ per cent. 



ic proiiortionate value of Keta\ie to the total seal population of the i.-lands. For if 

 we tiikc viur own count for IN! Hi as visible on Ketavie at the height of the 



on and multinly it first in the proportion of J5;J per cent., as Messrs. True and 

 Town-end did, to tind the total seal population of the islands, and then add 73 per cent, to 

 the icsult, as Dr. Jordan has shown it i.s necessary to do. we ^ct the result of 147,090 for 

 the breed i: in the rookeries for 1896, a surprisingly close approximate to the 



1 |:'.o71 i! actually found. In short, so far as it goes, the whole count 



decidedly opposed to any siirus of tit her local or general decrease, and would strongk 

 tempt us to accept Messrs. True and To\Mi>e;id's estimate (as corrected by Dr. Jordan; 

 ot l'J.'}.'J4" breeding-cows for the two islands in 1895 as not far from correct. 



Earlier Numerical Kxtiiiint.es. 



When it is so manifestly impossible to reconcile the statements made or to reali/.e 

 the conditions that obtained so lately as 1893, it is natural that earliei uld 



lead us into still greater uncertainties and difficulties. !>y far the most important of such 

 early estimates is that of Mr. II. \V. Klliott in 1*7'J 7-K an estimate repeated by him in 

 iMiii. ; ,ort on the Pribylott Islands In II. \V. Klliott, Paris edition, . !). 



(/ . and ' Monoziapii of the Seal Islands," edition, '18*1, | .) The 



essence of Mr. Elliott's computation lies in his belief that the number i- in d 



ratio to the superficial extent of the rookery. His statement is exceedingly precise, and 

 may be here quoted (Report, pp. 1 "> an i h> 



; ' At the close of my investigation, during the first n-a-on of my labour on the 

 grounds in 1873, the fact' became evident that the breeding Mall ! impli'-iily an 



imjierative and instinctive natural law of distribution, a !a>\ i/.ed by each and e 



seal upon the rookeries, prompted bv a line eoiisciousi.e-s () i --"y to it- own 



being. The hreeding-grounds occnpii d by them were, tlieiefore. invaria!> by 



the seals in exact ratio, greater or k-s as the area up.iii which they rested was larirci oi- 

 lier. '!'hey always covere.i tiu -round evenly, never cro\\t;in_' m at one pi to 

 er out there. The svals lie just as thickly together when- the rookeiv is houni! 

 "In its eligible avea to their rear and unoccu; led by them as they do in the iitli 

 which are abruptly cut oil and narrowed by rocky \\all- behind. Kor instance, on a 



