16 



of ground, under the face of bluffs which hemmed it in to the land from the sea, there are 

 just as many seals, no more and no less, as will be found on any other rod of rookery-ground 

 throughout the whole list, great and small, always exactly so many seals, under any and 

 all circumstances, to a given area of breeding-ground. There are just as many cows, 

 bulls, and pups on a square rod at Nali Speel, near the village, where in 1874, all told, 

 there were only 7,000 or 8,000, as there are on any square rod at North-east Point, where 

 1,000,000 of them congregate." 



"This fact being determined, it is evident that, Justin proportion as the breeding- 

 grounds of the fur-seal on these islands expand or contract in area from their present 

 dimensions, the seal will increase or diminish in number. 



" The discovery, at, the close of the season 1872, of this law of distribution, gave me 

 at once the clue I was searching for in order to take steps by which I could arrive at a 

 sound conclusion as to the entire number of seal herding on the island." 



After further discussing the case he savs (on p. 18), "Taking all these points into 

 consideration, as they are features of fact, I quite safely calculate upon an average of 

 2 square feet to every animal, big or little, on the breeding-grounds, as the initial point 

 upon which to base and intelligent computation of the entire number of seals before us." 

 Jt is on this estimate that Mr. Elliott bases his computation of 3,030,000 seals of all ages 

 on the breeding-grounds for the Island of St. Paul in 1872-74, and 160,670 for that of 

 St. George. 



I believe, after careful perusal of Mr. Elliott's work, that he maintains precisely the 

 same position as to the number of seals on the ground in 1890. He states indeed that the 

 bulls were fewer and wider apait, but also that the harems were immensely larger ; and 

 though I do not quite understand the process of survey by which in the latter year he 

 arrived at an estimate of the "average depth" of the rookery, yet, having done so, he certainly 

 calculates it? population at the same ratio of one seal to 2 square feet. 



Now it is perfectly certain that no rookery last year, nor in the preceding year, 

 presented to any observer so great a density. Where the dead bodies were lyin^ almost as 

 close as they could lie on the killing-ground at Polavina, they occupied an average space of 

 13^ square feet to each body (c/. Jordan, Preliminary Report, p. 20), and on Ardiguen 

 Dr. Jordan measured the space occupied by a single harem of thirty-three cows, and found, 

 within the limits of a single harem, a space of 8 square feet for each seal (loc. cit.) Not one 

 of our observations and not one of our photographs shows on the more rocky rookeries a 

 density (taking the harems collectively) near so great as this. The conformation of the 

 ground and the interspersal of the boulders must at all times, as it does now, have 

 prevented anything approaching to so nniforrnily compact a distribution of the seals. But 

 it is not necessary to do more than cite the opinion of the American Commission of 1896 

 as expressed by Dr. Jordan, who in arguing concerning Messrs. True and Townsend's 

 estimate of 23 square feet to each seal on the most crowded rookeries (Report 1895), and 

 considering it excessive, says (p. 20), " Where seals are massed on rookeries, the space 

 occupied by each seal is more nearly 12 than 23 square feet," and further that the 

 46 square feet which Messrs. True and Townsend's estimate for the more rocky and less 

 densely populated localities is, as a matter of fact, doubtless too low. "We cannot believe," 

 Dr. Jordan also says (p. 19), " that even in the most favourable times the fur-seals were 

 evenly crowded over the rookeries, and it is evident that as they grow fewer this 

 arrangement tends to become more sparse, especially on rocky slopes and boulder-strewn 

 beaches.'' 



J need not follow out in detail the deduction that such newer estimates involve in the 

 numbers put forward by Mr. Elliott, but I may say that, taking Mr. Elliott's calculation 

 of 3,190,000 breeding seals on the rookeries of both islands in 1872-71, deducting from 

 that number the 90,000 bulls (Report, p. 90), and dividing the balance by 6 (to give 

 instead of 2 feet for a seal the 12 feet that Dr. Jordan admits for each cow on the most 

 crowded portion of Tolstoi, Preliminary Report, p. 18), we get the reduced number of 

 516,000, which is only about three and a halt times as great as that which we know to exist 

 now. 



'\ he calculation is of no great importance, and in making it we admit far too much, in 

 particular that every part of every rookery was then as densely rilled as is the most crowded 

 spot to-day. But however much these figures may be twisted and the case reargued, it 

 is perfectly clear that Mr. Elliott's gigantic computation can never again be upheld as a 

 reasonable statement of the numbers that once existed on the islands, or with which the 

 present numbers ought to be compared. 



But if we refuse to admit Mr. Elliott's estimate of the seals, let us try to accept his 

 measurement of areas. His surveys, lie tells us (Report on the Pribyloff Islands in 1890, 

 Paiis edition, 1893, p. 19), were made with all scientific precautions in 1872-74 by measured 



