440 



NATURE 



[September 8, 1898 



•to get accurate estimates of this year's wheat crops of the world, 

 'but an adequate idea may be gained from the realised crops of 

 •some countries and the promise of others. To supply 516,500,000 

 bread-eaters, if each bread-eating unit is to have his usual ration, 

 will require a total of 2,324,000,000 bushels for seed and food. 

 "What are our prospects of obtaining this amount ? 



According to the best authorities the total supplies from the 

 11897-98 harvest are 1,921,000,000 bushels. The requirement 

 of the 516,500,000 bread-eaters for seed and food are 

 2,324,000,000 bushels ; there is thus a deficit of 403,000,000 

 tushels, which has not been urgently apparent owing to a 

 ■surplus of 300,000,000 bushels carried over from the last 

 'harvest. Respecting the prospects of the harvest year just 

 beginning it must be borne in mind that there are no re- 

 mainders to bring over from last harvest. We start with a 

 deficit of i03-,ooo,ooo bushels and have 6,500,000 more mouths 

 to feed. It follows, therefore, that one-sixth of the required 

 bread will be lacking unless larger drafts than now seem 

 •possible can be made upon early produce from the next 

 harvest. 



The majority of the wheat crops between 1882 and 1896 were 

 in excess of current needs, and thus considerable reserves of 

 wheat were available for supplementing small deficits from the 

 four deficient harvests. But bread-eaters have almost eaten up 

 the reserves of wheat, and the 1897 harvest being under average, 

 the conditions become serious. That scarcity and high prices 

 have not prevailed in recent years is due to the fact that since 

 1889 we have had seven world crops of wheat and six of rye 

 abundantly in excess of the average. These generous crops 

 incr eased accumulations to such an extent as to obscure the 

 fact that the harvests of 1895 and 1896 were each much below 

 .current requirements. Practically speaking, reserves are now 

 exhausted, and bread-eaters must be fed from current harvests — 

 accumulation under present conditions being almost impossible. 

 This is obvious from the fact that a harvest equal to that of 

 1894 (the greatest crop on record, both in acre-yield and in the 

 aggregate) would yield less than current needs. 



It is clear we are confronted with a colossal problem that 

 must tax the wits of the wisest. When the bread-eaters have 

 exhausted all possible supplies from the 1897-98 harvest, there 

 will be a deficit of 103,000,000 bushels of wheat, with no sub- 

 stitution possible unless Europeans can be induced to eat Indian 

 corn or rye bread. Up to recent years the growth of wheat has 

 kept pace with demands. As wheat-eaters increased, the acre- 

 age under wheat expanded. The world has become so familiar- 

 ised with the orderly sequence of demand and supply, so 

 accustomed to look upon the vast plains of other wheat- 

 growing countries as inexhaustible granaries, that, in a light- 

 hearted way, it is taken for granted that so imany million 

 additional acres can be added year after year to the wheat- 

 growing area of the world. We forget that the wheat-growing 

 area is of strictly limited extent, and that a few million acres 

 regularly absorbed, soon mount to a formidable number. 



The present position being so gloomy, let us consider future 

 prospects. What are the capabilities as regards available 

 area, economic conditions, and acreage yield of the wheat- 

 growing countries from whence we now draw our supply ? 



For the last thirty years the United States have been the 

 dominant factor in the foreign supply of wheat, exporting no 

 less than 145,000,000 bushels. This shows how the bread- 

 eating world has depended, and still depends, on the United 

 States for the means of subsistence. The entire world's contri- 

 butions to the food-bearing area have averaged but 4,000,000 

 acres yearly since 1869. It is scarcely possible that such an 

 average, under existing conditions, can be doubled for the 

 coming twenty- five years. Almost yearly, since 1885, additions 

 to the wheat-growing area have diminished, while the require- 

 ments of the increasing population of the States have advanced, 

 so that the needed American supplies have been drawn from the 

 •acreage hitherto used for exportation. Practically there re- 

 mains no uncultivated prairie land in the United States suit- 

 able for wheat-growing. The virgin land has been rapidly 

 absorbed, until at present there is no land left for wheat 

 without reducing the area for maize, hay, and other necessary 

 ■crops. 



It is almost certain that within a generation the, ever increas- 

 ing population of the United States will consume all- the wheat 

 grown within its borders, and will be driven to import, and, like 

 •ourselves, will scramble for a lion's share of the wheat crop of 

 •the world. This being the outlook, exports of wheat from the 



NO, 1506, VOL. 58] 



United States are only of present interest, and will gradually 

 diminish to a vanishing point. The inquiry may be restricted 

 to such countries as probably will continue to feed bread-eaters 

 who annually derive a considerable part of their wheat from 

 extraneous sources. 



But if the United States, which grow about one-fifth of the 

 world's wheat, and contribute one-third of all wheat export- 

 ations, are even now dropping out of the race, and likely soon 

 to enter the list of wheat-importing countries, what prospect is 

 there that other wheat-growing countries will be able to fill the 

 gap, and by enlarging their acreage under wheat, replace the 

 supply which the States have so long contributed to the world's 

 food ? The withdrawal of 145 million bushels will cause a 

 serious gap in the food supply of wheat importing countries, 

 and unless this deficit can be met by increased supplies from 

 other countries there will be a dearth for the rest of the world 

 after the British Isles are sufficiently supplied. 



Next to the United States Russia is the greatest wheat ex- 

 porter, supplying nearly 95 million bushels. 



Although Russia at present exports so lavishly, this excess is 

 merely provisional and precarious. The Russian peasant popu- 

 lation increases more rapidly than any other in Europe. The 

 yield per acre over European Russia is meagre — not more than 

 8^6 bushels to the acre — while some authorities consider it as 

 low as 4 '6 bushels. The cost of production is low — lower even 

 than on the virgin soils of the United States. The develop- 

 ment of the fertile though somewhat overrated " black earth," 

 which extends across the southern portion of the empire and 

 beyond the Ural Mountains into Siberia, progresses rapidly. 

 But, as we have indicated, the consumption of bread in Russia 

 has been reduced to danger point. The peasants starve and 

 fall victims to "hunger typhus," whilst the wheat growers 

 export grain that ought to be consumed at home. 



Considering Siberia as a wheat grower, climate is the first 

 consideration. Summers are short — as they are in all regions 

 with continental climates north of the 45th parallel — and the 

 ripening of wheat requires a temperature averaging at least 65° 

 Fahr. for fifty-five to sixty-five days. As all Siberia lies north 

 of the summer isotherm of 65° it follows that such region is 

 ill adapted to wheat culture unless some compensating climatic 

 condition exists. As a fact, the conditions are exceptionally 

 unfavourable in all but very limited districts in the two western- 

 most governments. The cultivable lands of Western Siberia 

 adapted to grain-bearing neither equal in extent nor in potential 

 productive powers those of Iowa, Minnesota, and Nebraska. 

 There are limited tracts of fair productiveness in Central 

 Siberia and in the valleys of the southern affluents of the Amoor, 

 but these are only just capable of supporting a meagre population. 

 Prince Ililkoff, Russian Minister of Ways and Communica- 

 tions, declared in 1896 that " Siberia never had produced, and 

 never would produce, wheat and rye enough to feed the Siberian 

 population." And, a year later, Prince Kropotkin backed the 

 statement as substantially correct. 



Those who attended the meeting of the British Association 

 last year in Canada must have been struck with the extent and 

 marvellous capacity of the fertile plains of Manitoba and the 

 North-west Provinces. Here were to be seen 1,290,000 acres 

 of fine wheat-growing land yielding 18,261,950 bushels, one- 

 fifth of which comes to hungry England. Expectations have 

 been cherished that the Canadian North-west would easily 

 supply the world with wheat, and exaggerated estimates are 

 drawn as to the amount of surplus land on which wheat can be 

 grown. Thus far performance has lagged behind promise, the 

 wheat-bearing area of all Canada having increased less than 

 500,000 acres since 1884, while the exports have not increased 

 in greater proportion. • As the wheat area of Manitoba and the 

 North-west has increased the wheat area of Ontario and the 

 Eastern provinces has decreased, the added acres being little 

 more than sufficient to meet the growing requirements of popula- 

 tion. We have seen calculations showing that Canada contains 

 500,000,000 acres of profitable wheat land. The impossibility 

 of such an estimate ever being fulfilled will be apparent when it 

 is remembered that the whole area employed in both temperate 

 zones for growing all the staple food crops is not more than 

 580,000,000 acres, and that in no country has more than 

 9 per cent, of the area been devoted to wheat culture. 



The fertility of the North-west Provinces of the Dominion is 

 due to an exceptional and curious circumstance. In winter the 

 ground freezes to a considerable depth. Wheat is sown in the 

 spring, generally April, when the frozen ground has been 



