September 8, 1898] 



NA TURE 



441 



thawed to a depth of three inches. Under the hot sun of the 

 short summer the grain sprouts with surprising rapidity, partly 

 because the roots are supplied with water from the thawing 

 depths. The summer is too short to thaw the ground tho- 

 roughly, and gate-posts or other dead wood extracted in autumn 

 are found still frozen at their lower ends. 



Australasia as a potential contributor to the world's supply of 

 wheat affords another fertile field for speculation. Climatic 

 conditions limit the Australian wheat area to a small portion of 

 the southern littoral belt. Prof. Shelton considers there are 

 still fifty million acres in (Queensland suitable for wheat, but 

 hitherto it has never had more than 150,000 acres under cultiva- 

 tion. Crops in former days were liable to rust, but since the 

 Rust in Wheat conferences and the dissemination of instruction to 

 farmers, rust no longer has any terrors. I am informed by the 

 (Queensland Department of Agriculture that of late years they 

 practically have bred wheat vigorous enough to resist this 

 plague. For the second season in succession the wheat crop 

 last year was destroyed over large areas in Victoria ; and in 

 South Australia the harvest averaged not more than about 

 3f bushels per acre after meeting Colonial requirements for food 

 and seed, leaving only 684,000 bushels for export. In most 

 other districts the yield falls to such an extent as to cause 

 Europeans to wonder why the pursuit of wheat-raising is 

 continued 



New Zealand has a moist climate resembling that of central 

 and southern England, while South Australia is semi-arid, 

 resemliling Western Kansas. Only two countries in the world 

 yield as much wheat per acre as New Zealand— these are 

 Denmark and the United Kingdom. Notwithstanding the 

 great yield of wheat, due to an equable climate, New Zealand 

 finds fruit and dairy farming still more profitable. The climatic 

 conditions favourable to wheat are also conducive to luxuriant 

 growths of nutritious grasses. Thus the New Zealander ships 

 his butter more than half-way round the world, and competes 

 successfully with western Europe, 



During the last twenty-seven years the Austro-Hungarian 

 population has increased 21 "8 per cent., as against an increase 

 of 54 "6 per cent, in the acreage of wheat. Notwithstanding 

 this disparity in the rates of increase, exports have practically 

 ceased by reason of an advance of nearly 80 per cent, in unit 

 consumption. There can be little doubt that Austro-Hungary 

 is about to enter the ranks of importing nations, although in 

 Hungary a considerable area of wheat land remains to l)e 

 brought under cultivation. 



Roumania is an important wheat-growing countrj'. In 1896 

 it produced 69,000,000 bushels, and exported 34,000,030 

 bushels. It has a considerable amount of surplus land which 

 can be used for wheat, although for many years the wheat area 

 is not likely to exceed home requirements. 



France comes next to the United States as a producer of 

 wheat ; but for our purpose she counts but little, being dependent 

 on supplies from abroad for an average quantity of 14 per cent, 

 of her own production. There is practically no spare land in 

 France that can be put under wheat in sufficient quantity to 

 enable her to do more than provide for increase of population. 



Germany is a gigantic importer of wheat, her imports rising 

 700 per cent, in the last twenty-five years, and now averaging 

 35,000,000 bushels. Other nations of Europe, also importers, 

 ': ) not require detailed mention, as under no conceivable con- 

 liiions would they be able to do more than supply wheat for 

 ;he increasing requirements of their local population, and, 

 instead of replenishing, would probably diminish, the world's 

 stores. 



The prospective supply of wheat from Argentina and 

 Uruguay has been greatly overrated. The agricultural area 

 includes less than 100,000,000 acres of good, bad, and indifferent 

 land, much of which is best adapted for pastoral purposes. 

 There is no prospect of Argentina ever being able to devote 

 more than 30,ooo,(X)0 acres to wheat ; the present wheat area 

 is about 6,000,000 acres, an area that may be doubled in the 

 next twelve years. But the whole arable region is subject to 

 great climatic vicissitudes, and to frosts that ravage the fields 

 south of the 37th parallel. Years of systematised energy are 

 frustrated in a few days — perhaps hours — by a single cruelty of 

 nature, such as a plague of locusts, a tropical rain, or a 

 devastating hail storm. It will take years to bring the surplus 

 lands of Argentina into cultivation, and the population is even 

 now insufficient to supply labour at seed time and harvest. 

 During the next twelve years, Uruguay may add a million 



NO. 1506, VOL. 58] 



acres to the world's wheat fields, but social, political, and 

 economic conditions seriously interfere with agricultural 

 development. 



At the present time South Africa is an importer of wheat, 

 and the regions suitable to cereals do not exceed a few million 

 acres. Great expectations have been formed as to the fertility 

 of Mashonaland, the Shire Islands, and the Kikuyu plateau, 

 and as to the adaptation of these regions to the growth of wheat. 

 But wheat culture fails where the banana ripens, and the banana 

 flourishes throughout Central Africa, except in limited areas of 

 great elevation. In many parts of Africa msect pests render it 

 impossible to store grain, and without grain-stores there can be 

 little hope of large exports. 



North Africa, formerly the granary of Rome, now exports 

 less than 5,000,000 bushels of wheat annually, and these exports 

 are on the decline, owing to increased home demands. With 

 scientific irrigation, Egypt could supply three times her present 

 amount of wheat, although no increase is likely unless the cotton 

 fields of the Delta are- diverted to grain growing. In Algeria 

 and Tunis nearly all reclaimed lands are devoted to the pro- 

 duction of wine, for which a brisk demand exists. Were this 

 land devoted to the growth of wheat, an additional five million 

 bushels might be obtained. 



The enormous acreage devoted to wheat in India has been 

 declining for some years, and in 1895 ov^"^ 20,000,000 acres 

 yielded 185,000,000 bushels. Seven-eighths of this harvest is 

 required for native consumption, and only one-eighth on an 

 average is available for export. The annual increase of popula- 

 tion is more than 3,000,000, demanding an addition to the 

 food-bearing lands of not less than i,8(X),ooo acres annually. 

 In recent years the increase has been less than one-fourth of 

 this amount. 



In surveying the limitations and vicissitudes of wheat crops, I 

 have endeavoured to keep free from exaggeration, and have 

 avoided insistance on doubtful points, I have done my best to 

 get trustworthy facts and figures, but from the nature of the 

 case it is impossible to attain complete accuracy. Great 

 caution is required in sifting the numerous varying current 

 statements respecting the estimated areas and total produce of 

 wheat throughout the world. The more closely official estimates 

 are examined, the more defective are they found, and com- 

 paratively few figures are sufficiently well established to bear the 

 deductions often drawn. In doubtful cases I have applied to- 

 the highest authorities in each country, and in the case of con- 

 flicting accounts have taken data the least favourable to sen- 

 sational or panic-engendering statements. In a few instances 

 of accurate statistics their value is impaired by age ; but for 95. 

 per cent, of my figures I quote good authorities, while for the 

 remaining 5 per cent. I rely on the best commercial estimates 

 derived from the appearance of the growing crops, the acreage 

 under cultivation, and the yield last year. The maximujn. 

 probable error would make no appreciable difference in my 

 argument. 



The facts and figures I have set before you are easily inter- 

 preted. Since 1871 unit consumption of wiheat, including seed,, 

 has slowly increased in the United Kingdom to the present 

 amount of 6 bushels per head per annum ; while the rale of 

 consumption for seed and food by the whole world of bread- 

 eaters was 4*15 bushels per unit per annum for the eight years 

 ending 1878, and at the present time is 4*5 bushels. Under 

 present conditions of low acre yield, wheat cannot long retain 

 its dominant position among the food-stuffs of the civilised 

 world. The details of the impending catastrophe no one can 

 predict, but its general direction is obvious enough. Should 

 all the wheat-growing countries add to their area to the utmost 

 capacity, on the most careful calculation the yield would give 

 us only an addition of some ioo,ooo,cxx) acres, supplying at the 

 average world-yield of 127 bushels to the acre, 1,2 70, 000, (XX) 

 bushels, just enough to supply the increase of population among 

 bread-eaters till the year 1931. 



At the present time there exists a deficit in the wheat area o. 

 31,000 square miles — a deficit masked by the fact that the ten 

 world crops of wheat harvested in the ten years ending 1896 were 

 more than 5 per cent, above the average of the previous twenty- 

 six years. 



When provision shall have been made, if possible, to feed 

 230,000,000 units likely to be added to the bread-eating popu- 

 lation by 1 93 1 — by the complete occupancy of the arable areas 

 of the temperate zone now partially occupied — where can be 

 grown the additional 330,000,000 bushels of wheat required tei> 



