June 3, 1897] 



NA rURE 



III 



and drier lands, and the area of cultivation in the dry season 

 under these conditions is hence largely diminished. If the 

 winter rains are light and scanty, the crops are more or less 

 severely affected on all the higher lands where irrigation from 

 wells, &c., is necessarily limited. 



The rains of the wet season set in suddenly on the west coast 

 of India in the first week of June, and a little later (in the 

 second or third week of June) on the Bengal coast, and extend 

 more or less rapidly into the interior. The prevailing winds of 

 this period are of oceanic origin, and are, in fact, the northward 

 extension of the winds of the south-east trades. 



The extension of these winds northwards across the Equator 

 and up the Indian Seas usually beg ns in the third week of May, 

 nd gives a complete and permanent change of weather (lasting 

 : ir five or six months), more especially over the land area of 

 India. The winds due to the extension of these massive humid 

 air currents usually begin to give daily rain to the Malabar 

 coast in the last week of May, and to the Bombay coast on 

 June 4 or 5. The humid currents advance more slowly into the 

 interior, but are usually established before the end of the month 

 over the whole of India. Cloudy, showery, or rainy weather, 

 with a moderately high temperature and small diurnal range of 

 temperature, prevail during the next three months, which are in 

 a striking contrast to the excessively hot and dry weather that 

 has prevailed during the previous two or three months. 



The rainfall of India during this period is of the greatest 

 importance, and is sufficient without the aid of irrigation for the 

 crops, except in a few districts (notably Sind and the West 

 Punjab). The rainfall varies considerably in distribution, and 

 -lightly in average amount from year to year. The general 

 . wlume of the current — and hence of the average seasonal rain- 

 ill in India— appears to be primarily dependent upon the 

 •length of the currents in the sea areas to the south of India, 

 nd hence also of the .south-east trades. Con.sequentIy it might 

 c expected that any large and persistent variations in the 

 strength of the south-east trades would be reproduced in the 

 strength of the south-west monsoon currents and in the rainfall 

 of the season in India. The local strength of the current in 

 different parts of India varies, to some extent, from year to 

 year, and it has been found that the distribution of the rainfall 

 is largely dependent upon the pressure and other abnormal 

 conditions prevailing in India at the time of its extension, and 

 hence that these can be utilised to forecast the general character 

 of the distribution of the monsoon rainfall. It has been shown, 

 chiefly by Mr. Blanford, that the amount and distribution of 

 the winter snowfall in the Western Himalayas is an important 

 factor in determining these conditions, and hence in modifying 

 the local distribution of the rainfall during the wet or south- 

 west monsoon. Excessive snowfall during the winter proper 

 i.e. December to March), or heavy and unusual snow in April 

 1 May, affect the pressure distribution in such a way as to 

 cflect the monsoon currents in their entry into India from one 

 portion of the area (usually North-western India), and deter- 

 mine it more largely than usual to another portion (as, for ex- 

 ample, Burma, Bengal or the Peninsula). Under such con- 

 ditions, one part of the Indian monsoon area receives unusually 

 scanty rain .(leading, perhaps, to drought and famine), whilst 

 another area obtains excessive rain. The last notable example 

 of this was in 1 891, when Rajputana suffered severely from 

 drought. The winter of 1890-91, in the W^estern Himalayas, 

 was very severe, and the snowfall excessive and prolonged until 

 May. 



It is of the greatest importance to distinguish between the 

 general conditions in the oceanic area (more especially the 

 strength of the south-east trades) affecting the general strength 

 of the monsoon currents prevailing in the Indian monsoon 

 region and the local conditions determining its relative strength 

 in difiierent portions of the Indian land area. For many years 

 — viz. from 1879 to 1891 — the local conditions were undoubtedly 

 the predominant factor determining the variation of the south- 

 west monsoon rainfall in India; but the year 1892 introduced 

 conditions and actions, leading to a very large cyclical variation 

 of rainfall, which cannot be explained by local conditions in 

 India, but which appear to be, in part at least, due to variations 

 in the general strength of the south-west monsoon circulation 

 as depending upon corresponding variations in the south-east 

 trades. 



The crops during the south-west or wet monsoon may be 

 locally deficient, either from excessive rain and floods or from 

 scanty rains. Partial failure of the crops from excessive rain 



is usually local in its extension ; but the excessive rainfall of 

 the years 1893-94 undoubtedly affected the crops to a serious 

 extent in many parts of the Central Provinces, Central India, 

 and the North-western Provinces, and impoverished the people 

 of these districts to some extent, and hence diminished their 

 capacity to resist the effects of the deficient rainfall and drought 

 in the succeeding yeats 1895 and 1896. 



Deficient rainfall during the wet monsoon is, undoubtedly, 

 the most potent factor in diminishing the staple food crops ot 

 India and leading up to food scarcity and famine. The ramfall 

 may be deficient throughout the whole season, as was the case 

 in many districts of the North-western Provinces in the south- 

 west monsoon of 1896 ; or the rains may cease suddenly and 

 abruptly some weeks earlier than usual, as in the Central 

 Provinces in 1896. In the latter case, prospects may be 

 excellent from the beginning of the monsoon up to the middle 

 or end of September, and then deteriorate rapidly in consequence 

 of the failure of the rainfall necessary for the full growth of the 

 rice and other food crops. This was the case in 1896 over the 

 greater part of the Central Provinces and Bengal, where the 

 partial failure of the rice crop was solely due to the absence of 

 rain in October and November 1896. 



The failure of the crops in India, 1896, was more extensive, 

 and spread over a far wider area than has occurred for probably 

 100 years at least, and its effects were intensified by the four 

 unsatisfactory seasons which preceded it. It was due in a few 

 districts to excessive rain and floods, in a large number of dis- 

 tricts to scanty rainfall throughout the whole monsoon, and in 

 others to the early and abrupt termination of the rains from a 

 month to six weeks before the normal date. 



The following gives details and data of the more important 

 abnormal features of the south-west monsoon rains of 1896, 

 which were chiefly instrumental in leading up to the very 

 general and partial failure of the summer or wet crops of that 

 year. The table below gives the average or normal date on 

 which the south-west monsoon rains commence in different 

 provinces of India, and the mean date on which they commenced 

 in the same areas in 1896 : - 



NO. 1440, VOL. 56] 



This table shows clearly that the advent of the monsoon was 

 slightly delayed, more especially in the Arabian Sea and on the 

 west coast of India, The monsoon currents advanced, however, 

 so rapidly into the interior that in Upper India the rains began 

 a few days earlier than usual, establishing that the local con- 

 ditions in India were favourable. (This was anticipated in the 

 Departmental forecast published in the first week of June ante- 

 cedent to the arrival of the monsoon, in which it was stated 

 " that the monsoon currents would probably set in on the Bom- 

 bay coast later than usual, but would advance into the interior 

 more rapidly than usual.") 



The monsoon currents held without any general break or 

 interruption throughout the remainder of the month of June, 

 and also during the whole of July and the first three weeks of 

 August, but were less steady than usual. A larger number of 

 cyclonic storms than usual formed in the Bay during this period, 

 as is the rule in a weak monsoon. These storms advanced in 

 the same general direction across a broad belt of country at the 

 head of the Peninsula, stretching from Orissa to Gujarat and 

 Kathiawar. The in-draught to these storms affected the dis- 



