116 WHEAT PRODUCTION IN NEW ZEALAND 



Zealand. A gradual rise in total production took place 

 nnt.il 1883-4 when a maximum was reached, after which 

 in the succeeding two years production falls away 

 rapidly. These are the circumstances of a typical credit 

 cycle. At first, trade is depressed and progress is slow. 

 Then comes a period of rapid expansion followed by 

 sudden collapse, and trade once more becomes depressed. 

 So our cycle from 1877-1886 may be divided into three 

 periods: the first, 1877-80, when progress was slow 

 but sure; then a period of rapid expansion, 1881-4; 

 followed thirdly, by a sudden collapse in 1885-6. 



3. 1887-1895. The third cycle, this time of nine 

 years, is no less conformatory to Jevons's cyclical theory 

 than the former period. Here, again, during the years 

 1887-91 production gradually increases until a culmin- 

 ating point is reached in 1892, after which there is a 

 decline at first slow and then rapid until 1895. 



4. 1896-1902. A somewhat shorter cycle then follows, 

 but nevertheless typical in its nature. A steady recovery 

 from 1895 sets in, and in 1899 a maximum is reached, 

 after which once more production declines. 



5. 1902-1913. Since 1902 cyclical changes are not so 

 definite. The wheat industry, gradually losing its position 

 as one of our principal industries, is consequently in a 



ten or eleven year periods of the sun spots, which were con- 

 sidered to reflect changes in the amount of heat given by the 

 sun. His son, Prof. H. S. Jevons, continued the thesis by 

 making extensive investigations into fluctuations in the agri- 

 cultural produce of the United States of America, the results 

 of which are set out in the article quoted above. 



In this way he established a trade cycle of about 10 years 

 with three interacting cycles within the period of 3^ years. 

 This is what is known as a typical Jevonian cycle. In order 

 to test the validity of the theory in reference to New Zealand 

 it would be necessary to consider the whole of the primary 

 produce of the Dominion, which is rather beyond the scope of 

 this investigation. 



