HISTORY OP WHEAT PRODUCTION IN NEW ZEALAND 117 



somewhat transitional state, and the amount produced 

 fluctuates considerably from year to year. Nevertheless, 

 we can notice a more or less definite cycle over the period 

 1903-13. From statistics of the area in wheat the cycle 

 is much more definite than from statistics of total crop. 

 From the former we see that an upward tendency, with 

 one exception of importance, that of the year 1908, was 

 maintained until 1910, after which production fell off 

 in the usual way. From the latter, however, a good 

 harvest in 1905 breaks the gradual upward tendency; 

 but otherwise the cycle is fairly typical reaching a 

 maximum output in 1910-11 and afterwards declining. 



In this connection the frequency and regularity with 

 which a series of good harvests occurred is not unim- 

 portant. In the period 1869-1902 these were regular 

 in their occurrence, being registered in 1873-4, 1883-4, 

 1892, and 1899. During the remaining period, as was 

 noted, the graph representing the cyclical period 1903-13 

 has two crests, 1905 and 1909, while the harvest of 1915 

 gave an excellent yield, though the area sown was 

 small. 



Broadly speaking, then, we may trace out five cyclical 

 periods between 1869 and 1913, the average length being 

 about 9 years, which corresponds fairly closely with 

 Jevons's period of a little over 10 years. It will be 

 noticed also that good harvests occur up till 1905 at 

 intervals of about nine years. The harvest for the 

 present year has occurred with the same regularity and, 

 with the exception of the year 1909, we have had good 

 harvests at regular recurring intervals of about 9 years. 

 New Zealand as yet affords no data for examining the 

 validity of long period cycles, such for instance as 

 Bruckner's 34 year cycle and Wolf's cycle of 55 years. 

 Moreover, it must be remembered that our enquiry into 

 the causes of cyclical changes in production is made 

 under rather exceptional circumstances, in that New 



