watt-hours) to be consumed during the year. 



The most recent projections (1977) indicate that in the absence of the Libby 

 project peak surpluses will be available through 1989-1990. This means that the 

 value of even more surplus capacity is near zero because it can only serve to pro- 

 vide additional reserves to a system with very substantial reserve margins already 

 built in. 



The past three years' projections of future power demands, as presented by 

 the PNUCC in 1975, 1975 and 1977, s how chat (a) there is a steady decline in the 

 load demands projected for the period of 1978-1990, (b) there is a steady decline 

 in the net resources^ projected for the same period and (c) there is an increase 

 in the peaking capacity surpluses projected for the same period. The projected 

 surpluses of peaking capacity have resulted because the load demand projections 

 are declining faster than the projected net resources. For example, the surplus 

 of peaking capacity projected in 1975 for the period 1982-1933 was 338 MW; how- 

 ever, more recent projections (1977) show that a surplus of 1278 MW will exist in 

 1982-1983. 



Table 1 shows projected surpluses and deficits of net firm resources, as pro- 

 jected by the PNUCC. The values shown are the differences between projected load 

 demands and projected net resources. 



TABLE 1 



PNUCC PROJECTIONS OF POWER SURPLUSES MADE IN 1975, 1976 AND 1977 



(MW) 



SOURCES: Power Planning Committee, PNRBC, "Review of Power Planning in the Pacific 

 Northwest Calendar Year 1975" p. 95 and "Review of Power Planning in the Pacific North- 

 west Calendar Year 1977", p. 58, BPA Role EIS, page V-228. 



^Net resources are gross resources minus reserve requirements and other capacity 

 adjustments. Gross resources are the combined capacity of all generating plants in the 

 power pool. Reserve requirements and other adjustments are subtracted because gross 

 resources are not always available due to lowered streamflows, plant maintenance, and 

 other factors. 



