14 Wetland Assessment Criteria 



2. THREAT OF FUTURE WETLAND LOSS 



Criterion 



Wetlands to be given priority consideration for acquisition should 

 be subject to identifiable threat of loss or degradation. 



Discussion 



Wetlands continue to be threatened with loss or degradation due to such 

 factors as agricultural, commercial and residential development; drain- 

 age and filling; road building; water development projects; groundwater 

 withdrawal; loss of instream flows; water pollution; and vegetation 

 removal. During the NWI trends study, agriculture was responsible for 

 87 percent of the man-induced wetland losses. Residential and com- 

 mercial development accounted for most of the remaining losses. While 

 some land use activities in wetlands may require a Federal permit in 

 accordance with section 404(a) of the Clean Water Act, the regulatory 

 program has not halted all wetland losses or degradation. 



A number of factors influence the type, degree and imminence of threat. 

 Degree of threat addresses the percentage of the wetland's functions and 

 values likely to be lost or degraded by all types of wetland threats. 

 Imminence of threat measures the time period within which the wetlands 

 are likely to be destroyed or altered. These factors include changes in 

 population growth and movements; food and energy policies and supplies; 

 local. State and Federal laws and ordinances; and land or resource use 

 controls. For example, the movement of people from the Northeastern U.S. 

 to "sun belt" States such as California, Florida, Hawaii and Texas may 

 fuel a demand for conversion of wetlands to urban lands. The National 

 Planning Association, an economic research organization in Washing- 

 ton, D.C., has estimated that 80 percent of the Nation's population growth 

 for the period 1980-2000 will occur in the south and west. The top 10 States 

 for population growth were projected to be: California, Florida, Texas, 

 Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia, Washington, Colorado, Virginia and 

 Tennessee. The threat to wetlands could be high in these States due to 

 developmental pressures associated with rapid population growth. A 

 depressed agricultural economy due to crop surplus, low prices and weak 

 export demand could result in a reduced rate of wetland conversion to 

 agricultural lands. Conversely, increased demand for U.S. agricultural 

 products could promote conversion of wetlands to agricultural lands. 



Coastal wetlands have experienced significant historic losses and 

 continue to be threatened. For example, the U.S. Census Bureau has 

 estimated that 75 percent of the population is expected to live within 50 

 miles of the U.S. coast (including the Great Lakes coastlines) by the year 

 1990 (President's Council on Environmental Quality, 1984). This 



