FOREST POLICY. 85 



As regards the supply of the two leading timber species in 

 the United States, Mr. Kellogg predicts (circular 129) the 

 following: 



"The cut of yellow pine is nearly one-third of the total 

 lumber cut in the United States. The minimum and maximum 

 estimates of yellow pine stumpage at hand are 130 and 

 300 billion feet, board measure, respectively. The present 

 rate of cutting will exhaust the supply in about ten years 

 in the first case, and in about 25 years in the second case, 

 neglecting the annual growth, which is rapid with old field 

 pine, and slow with long-leaved pine. 



The largest estimate of the stand of Douglas fir is 350 billion 

 feet. This means a 70 years' supply at the present rate of 

 cutting, neglecting the annual growth. As it is probable that 

 the cut will more than double within a few years, the outlook 

 is that there will be comparatively little Douglas fir left in 

 from 25 to 30 years. The case of Douglas fir now is parallel 

 to that of white pine in the Lake States 30 years ago; and 

 there is much reason to believe that the supply of Douglas 

 fir, outside of the national forests, 30 years hence will be 

 as limited as is that of white pine now." 



As regards Canada, the forest wealth of Canada, in sawtimber, 

 is estimated not to exceed one-third of our forest wealth. In 

 pulp wood supplies, on the other hand, Canada exceeds us by far. 

 When our timber supply has shrunk down to a point insufficient 

 to satisfy our needs, we shall be forced to draw upon the timber 

 wealth of Canada, Mexico, South America, Africa, Northern 

 Europe, and notably Asiatic Russia and Manchuria. The possi- 

 bility of supplying our needs from these countries depends 

 largely on the possibility of water freightage. Naturally, lumber 

 must be high-priced in the United States so as to allow in the 

 future of importation from other continents. 



The following tabular statement [by Schlich] illustrates the 

 role played by the various leading countries, as exporters or 

 importers: 



6* 



