88 



THE FUR SEALS OF THE PRIIULOF ISLANDS. 



inoincnt the various estimates that have been made on this basis. They are as 

 follows: 



Acreage eslimales of fur »cah, I'ribilof Islands. 



SUMMARY OF PAST CONDITIONS. 



To sum up this discussion of past conditions, we may conclude that the estimate 

 of 18C9 by Captain Bryant is only a rough approximation, and gives but little idea of 

 the real condition of the herd. Mr. Elliott's estimate of 1S72-1874: is scarcely less 

 unsatisfactory, lieiiig, as we now know, uearly twice too great. His 1800 estimate, 

 through the arbitrary curtailment of the breeding territory occupied, is nearer the 

 truth, but still far from it. The estimate of Mr. Tingle is wholly uutrn.stworthy. The 

 estimate of Messrs. True and Townsend for 1805, when subjected to the obvious 

 corrections and additions, which later observations .show to be necessary, is very 

 uear the facts. 



A RECONSTEXTCTION OF EARLIER ESTIMATES. 



In view of what has just beeu said, it becomes evident that the early estimates, 

 made shortly after the herd came into the possession of the United States, can not be 

 relied upon. There is abundant proof that the estimates are grossly exaggerated, but 

 data is wanting to enable us to determine the real facts. Some estimate of these early 

 conditions is, however, necessary, and no better method for obtaining it is available 

 than a theoretical reconstruction of the herd on the basis of the present known 

 condition of its breeding seals. To assist in this we have the record of the bachelor 

 herd, as indicated in the history of the quota for the first twenty years of American 

 control. 



THE EARLIER AND LATER tjUOTAS. 



From 1871 to 1889, inclusive, the hauling grounds of the Pribilof Islands yielded 

 100,000 skins annually. The seals for the greater part of this period were obtained 

 before the 2()th of July. It is the testinuuiy of tho.se connected with the work that 

 there were always killable seals left at the close of the season, and we know that the 

 rookeries never lacked the necessary supply of male life. 



1 )uriiig the ])resent season a quota of slightly more than 20,000 seals was obtained 

 after continuing the driving until the 10th of August and killing closer than ever 

 before. In other words, at the present time the hauling grounds are not capable 

 under like conditions of supplying one-fifth the number of killable seals today that 

 they were able without difliculty to furnish for 13 years prior to 1881. 



THE QUOTA DEPENDENT UPON THE BREEDING HERD. 



The bachelor herd is directly dependent upon the breeding herd. It is nominally 

 taken from the surviving .'vyear-old males and is directly related to the birthrate of 

 three years prior to its taking. Three years ago, or in 1891, therefore, the birthrate 



