ESTIMATES OF NUMBERS. 89 



of pups was between one-fifth and one-sixth of wliat it was in the period from 1S7I 

 to 1880. The breediiijr lierds of the same years bear tlie same relation to each other. 

 The present total of breeding females on the islands is about 130,000. We may infer, 

 therefore, tliat in tlic period 187 1-ISSO there were about five times as many, or in the 

 neighborhood of li()0,000 breeding females. 



ESTIMATE OF NONBREEDING SEALS. 



Of the ba("helors or nonbreeding seals no satisfactory estimate has been or can be 

 made, but it is evident from the data uow available that about one half the seals are 

 lost in the first migration at sea, while the number is still further reduced to one- 

 third, possibly to less, before the age of 3 years is reached. From this we can in a 

 rough way calculate that in connection with the (|Uota of liO.OOO bachelors we have a 

 total of approximately 400,000 animals, including breeding females, their young, and 

 all other classes. This is a ratio of 20 to 1 between the entire herd and the herd of 

 killable seals, and would, when applied to the herd of 1S71-1S80, give a total of 

 about 2,000,000 animals of all classes. 



THE RECONSTRUCTION STILL ONLY AN ESTOIATE. 



In putting forward this reconstruction of jiast conditions we are well aware that 

 it is still only an estimate. We have, however, in making it the advantage of 

 defiidtely known i»remi.ses to start from, and the results harmonize fully with the 

 conditions of our problem. 



COMPLETED ESTIMATE. 



Assuming the figures we have arrived at, we find that they work out in harmony 

 with the recorded facts of the quota for this period. Thus, with a birthrate of 000,000 

 l)ups, we may assume one-half, or 300,000, to survive to the age of 1 year, and 200,000 

 to the age of 3 years. One half of these were males and were killed to fill the (juota. 

 We know, of course, that not all the surviving males were killed, and therefore that 

 either the birthrate of pups was greater by 2.->,000 to 50,000 than the one assumed, or 

 that the ratio of loss was slightly less than one-half and one-third. The computation 

 is not intended to be exact, and can not be made so, but it is sufficient to show the 

 direction in which the truth lies, and is conclusive enough to show that during the 

 time of the herd's greatest expansion its breeding females numbered about 000,000, a 

 figure sufficiently exact for all practical purposes. 



Adding an equal number of pups annually and 20,000 breeding bulls, we have a 

 total of 1,400,000 '■ breeding seals and young," for the period in which ]Mr. Elliott 

 estimates 3,193,420.' 



'We must insist that tlie lalciilatioiis in the preceding paiagraplis am Intended lueitly as rcmgli 

 approximations tn sliow the early condition of the lierd. Sudi discrepancies as exist between these 

 figures and those tentatively put forth in our Preliminary Report for 1896 are the result of more 

 mature deliberation. The attempt of the British Colonial Office (see letter of Mr. Wingtield to 

 Foreign Office, Corr. on Seal Fisheries, Brit. Blue Book, No. 4, September, 1897. p. 121) to make capits. 

 out of them is wholly unwarranted. The statements both here and in the former report are couched 

 in sufficiently guarded language to leave no doubt iu the mind of the candid reader. We merely 

 wish to show that since the herd formerly yielded 100,0(X) skins annually and now yields but 2O,(XI0, 

 it must once have been .approximately five times as large as uow. On the other hand we infer that it 

 conld not under the circumstances have been seven or ten times as large. These figures represent .i: 

 attempt, more or less imperfect, owing to the complexity of the problem, to give concrete expressioi 

 to this undeniable fact. 



